REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:
A large break from balance in ES, NQ, & RTY. All products are either tagging or within short range of their December VPOCs. Implied volatility increased across the board, so expect more wide ranges.
Expecting the auctions to take a breath on Thursday and put in wide rotations. However, this is likely not the bottom yet from this “move.”
VIX Curve: “Normal Curve” / The complacency of the VIX curve showed the risk and despite the selling today and some contraction in the curve, we are nowhere near over-priced in risk protection. This means the downside remains open.
- NEAR CURVE VIX9D-VIX: -1.66 (-4+ is complacent, >1 is fearful)
- LONG CURVE VIX9D-VIX1Y: –10.17 (-13+ is complacent, >0 is fearful)
Catalysts: Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30AM EST
Keep the Opening Ranges of the year in view!
- Crude OR: 74.70
- ES OR: 4773
- NQ OR: 16383
- RTY OR: 2254
IDEAS from the QUICKSHEET:
- Soybean Oil: In extreme. Looking for triggers to be short for 56.52
- British Pount: In extreme. Looking for triggers to target 1.3529
- GOLD: Goldie is back to balance after testing higher. This means 1790 is on the table if we can hold below 1814