Some thoughts to start the week:
We came into the shortened opening week with the anticipation of a break from balance in the equities. The first non-farm payrolls release of the week brought considerable moves, but we’ve yet to break from the range of the last couple weeks. With Powell speaking, the first CPI release of the year and earnings…we don’t anticipate that we’ll have trouble breaking from balance this week.
Here’s what we see for equities:
- ES: In a range from 3800-3900 with a bullish posture. With a break from balance…3975-4K is in play higher this week. A swift return back through 3860 would negate.
- NQ: 10750-11185. 11950-977 the key zone to watch. Expecting pushes higher toward 11750 unless acceptance back below 11950 comes first.
- RTY: 1743-1805 balance zone. Bullish posture. Acceptance above the bracket pushes toward 1837-1845. 1783 the key defense. Acceptance below 1760 before pushing to 1837 puts last weeks’ lows in view.
- CL: Bearish imbalance in monthly profile. Balanced posture. 73.70 the early reference. Multi-day range from 72.50-75.50. Balance rules in play. Breaks lower look for 71.50. Breaks above to 82+.
Key Catalysts for the coming week:
- Tues: Powell speaking
- Wed: EIA
- Thurs: CPI, WASDE
- Fri: Bank Earnings, Michigan Consumer Expectations
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