Some thoughts to start the week:
Starting the week post OPEX and in the middle of the muddle. Buyers came in force on OPEX, but a look under the hood in the structure suggests that buying strength is not likely to last very long. Intensive call buying on Friday signaled FOMO and participants not wanting to miss out on these bear market rallies
The Debt Ceiling “risk” is back this week and going forward. The perennially frustrating threat that will likely resolve as a non-issue will grab headlines, but likely have little bearing on the auction as a whole.
Instead, in the post OPEX trade, we get the first read on GDP for 2023. We also see 2 big earnings releases in MSFT and TSLA.
Here’s what we see for equities:
- ES: In a range from 3930-4050…3900-3930 key for the auction to hold to keep moving higher. We are likely to see either 3860 or 4014 this week as the auction looks to bring composite value back together.
- NQ: NQ tagged the 2022 VPOC last week and found sellers. After kick saving on OPEX…the NQ is back above the 5D and only likely to fail on higher prices as inventory diminishes at price.
- RTY: RTY traded to the 1855 expected and found buyers. Still in a larger range from 1750-1915. Now, starting the week in a new “balancing” posture…1904 will be a key reference above. Should we hold below 1904…then looking to retest the 2023 VPOC and 2023 VWAP below.
- CL: Good defense of the 20D last week. Still threatening to push to new monthly highs and on to 86 on further acceptance higher unless acceptance below the 20D comes first.
Key Catalysts for the coming week:
- Tues: MSFT
- Wed: EIA, TSLA
- Thurs: GDP & Initial Jobless Claims
- Fri: PCE, Michigan Consumer
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