>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY or get the DAILY OUTLOOK.
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:
A puke into the close in equities, while Crude raced to new yearly highs.
The “Fiscal” market is alive and well. Expecting lower prices early on Monday, but watch for potential trap games on impulsive shorts. If late Friday shorts don’t get paid quickly, then be on the lookout for violent short-covering rallies.
Crude remains in the hands of the buyers. Note key levels on the plan. Very likely we open with a Gap.
It’s OPEX week and now that key earnings are past, we are prone to headline risk with Fed tightening and Geo-political issues. All of this either reverts or accelerates structure. Stay focused on structure. Know where you are relative to auction posture and developing intraday value.
VIX Curve: “Normal Curve” / We are in a normal curve. The curve inverted briefly on Friday before retreating just slightly into the close. If we invert next week, this should push the $SPY down to 434.50, which equates to 4350 ES. An inversion and then reversion would likely push us back toward 450. OPEX on Friday!!
- NEAR CURVE VIX9D-VIX: -0.55 (-4+ is complacent, >1 is fearful)
- LONG CURVE VIX9D-VIX1Y: -2.01 (-13+ is complacent, >0 is fearful)
Catalysts: VIX Curve Inverted; Headline Risk (Ukraine, Suprise Fed Moves); Inflation Data; Wednesday: EIA; FOMC Minutes, Fed Speak; Friday is OPEX.
Keep a reference of those Jan FOMC SOCs (Scene of the Crime): ES 4413, NQ 14475, RTY 2030.
Keep the Opening Ranges of the year in view! Crude OR: 74.70 | ES OR: 4773 | NQ OR: 16383| RTY OR: 2254
IDEAS from the QUICKSHEET:
- GC: Gold has changed posture and we are looking for balancing or responsive pullbacks to be long Gold toward 1892 target 1, 1920 target 2. We’re defending the base of the OF buying spike at 1840 and looking for early week weakness back toward that level to invite buyers toward our targets. If 1840 comes before new highs, the idea is off the table.
