>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY or get the DAILY OUTLOOK.
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:
What a difference more market information makes. After the massive gap lower overnight, buyers stepped in equities first to cover shorts and then to add to longs. Crude and other commodities hit massive prices higher before reverting back lower. Unless new information comes that the auction has not expected, we have likely “shut off” these moves and now heading into range-bound “rest.”
ES, NQ, & RTY back to composite levels. ES hit 2021 VPOC and closed above. This should be seen as “constructive” for S&P. $SPY cleaned the corresponding 415.
Crude, back to “balance” levels around 92.
Friday….We do have some economic releases before the open at 8:30AM EST. It’s inflation-related, so mark the scene of the release as an additional “bias” reference.
VIX Curve: “Normal Curve” / We have an “inverted” curve. We got a massive short-covering rally turning into a push higher, but it really didn’t do anything to the curve. 434 remains an upside if we revert. Technically, we have “reverted” but not as clean as the end of January. If we can become more complacent on Friday, look for 434 easy in the SPY and higher into next week.
- NEAR CURVE VIX9D-VIX: 0.97 (-4+ is complacent, >1 is fearful)
- LONG CURVE VIX9D-VIX1Y: -0.30 (-13+ is complacent, >0 is fearful)
Catalysts: Headline risk (Ukraine & Fed), Inflation data at 8:30AM EST
Keep a reference of those Jan FOMC SOCs (Scene of the Crime): ES 4413, NQ 14475, RTY 2030.
Keep the Opening Ranges of the year in view! Crude OR: 74.70 | ES OR: 4773 | NQ OR: 16383| RTY OR: 2254
IDEAS from the QUICKSHEET:
- Soybeans: Big rejection of limit up trade. Looking for new shorts on Friday.
- Tesla: Looking for long entry for 917 target 1. 1050 remains big 2022 target. Could also sell strangle/IC with legs above 917 and below 766.
- DAX: In the extreme. Did not recover like the US indexes, but looking for a swing next week.
