>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY or get the DAILY OUTLOOK.
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:
>> Recordings from the PATHWAY sessions will be posted in #pdp_weeklies in SLACK.
Tuesday, equity sellers showed their hands and have put a further stamp on the arrival of the “Fiscal” market.
It’s rare that we trade back through a prior day’s trend, but that’s exactly what ES and NQ did. RTY again tested above 2100 and got firmly rejected, reaffirming the 1900-2100 bracket.
Crude failed above 103, which builds the case for a push to 95.72 this week, unless Crude can get back above 103 post EIA.
Wednesday we have EIA (Crude), and FOMC minutes. We’ll be stalking #B2ND trades off the EIA number.
Expecting rotational chop and potentially some slight gaps lower in equities leading up to the minutes. The minutes will induce volatility. We’ll be looking for #B2ND set-ups off the release.
VIX Curve: “Normal Curve” / We have a normal curve. Very complacent curve, but we’ve tightened ever so slightly the last couple of sessions. As you can see, this has served to pull the $SPY lower back to the key composite at 450. When the curve is wide like this, it’s hard to be on the side of the buyers. Risk is underpriced…we rally when risk is overpriced.
- NEAR CURVE VIX9D-VIX: -2.42 (-4+ is complacent, >1 is fearful)
- LONG CURVE VIX9D-VIX1Y: -9.89 (-13+ is complacent, >0 is fearful)
Catalysts: Headline risk (Ukraine & Fed). Wed: EIA, FOMC Minutes; Friday: WASDE
We continue to carry forward the March FOMC SORs (scene of the release), remember, if we revisit these anytime soon, it’s likely a symptom of serious concern for the Equities:
- ES: 4307
- NQ: 13745
- RTY: 2006.8
IDEAS from the QUICKSHEET:
- GOLD: Is below the 1927 we noted from the Weekly Outlook. As long as 1927 holds, looking for push to weekly expected low at 1890-1900.
>>If you are confused and need some help in these new “fiscal” markets….please feel free to reach out in Slack or via email.