>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:
EQUITIES::
Early weakness in the Equities while traders started to hedge up for CPI, but not enough to do any real damage or significantly extend ranges. Tuesday will be all about CPI. Expecting a “BIG” range. Mark the 30sec range from the 8:30 AM EST release. This will be a key reference for the rest of the session. Caution, it may be very wide. The June print was almost 350pts in the NQ….in 30 seconds. That’s more than enough range to tag the YTD VWAPs above in ES and NQ. The RTY has already tested above the YTD VWAP and closed back below. The equities are balanced (see quicksheet)….expecting a big move!
Given the lack of hedging into the CPI number, the sellers have the upper hand. When the RTH session begins we’ll have to see if the move is enough to bring in late put buyers or not. If so, then expect lower prices for the rest of the session. We could see 4055 in ES and 12660 in NQ, “IF” hedgers come in aggressively.
Additionally, 4120-4150 ES will be the key zone to watch post CPI; 12925-13190 in NQ; 1911-1930 in RTY.
Here are the YTD VWAPS above, those are serious magnets for the auction if sellers fail to materialize:
ES: 4210
NQ: 13482
RTY: 1929.25
Catalysts: Headline risk (Ukraine & Fed). Wednesday: CPI
Significant “Binary” references still in play in the auction:
Note…we are trading above the June & July CPI numbers and there hasn’t been a positive CPI print……
|
PRODUCT |
JUNE CPI |
JUNE FOMC |
JULY CPI |
JULY FOMC |
|
ES |
3972-4018.75 | 3767.50-3792 |
3788-3860 |
3975-3973 |
|
NQ |
12152.50-12336.75 | 11499-11605 | 11583-11929.25 |
12429-12463 |
|
RTY |
1830.6-1851.1 | 1724-1735 | 1713.4-1748.7 |
1824-1828.6 |
These TWP Playbook Set-ups were in play on Tuesday:
- ES: HVNR
- NQ: XTFD
- RTY: HVNR/XTFD
VIX Curve: “Normal Curve” The curve remains “normal.” More tightening in the curve. Still complacent. This means if there is a negative reaction to the number, hedging could be swift to catch up to the risk.
- NEAR CURVE VIX9D-VIX: -0.95 NORMAL (-4+ is complacent, >1 is fearful)
- LONG CURVE VIX9D-VIX1Y: -7.81 NORMAL (-13+ is complacent, >0 is fearful)
CRUDE::
Crude buyers looked above the MVWAP and found sellers strong enough to close the gap and return to Monday’s VPOC. Still an inside week. DWVPOC at 90.50. Leaning on the Tuesday selling excess, looking for sellers to attempt lower on Wednesday. We have EIA, so that may alter the view. We’ll be looking for #B2ND off the EIA release.
Catalysts: Headline risk (Ukraine War & Inflation). Wednesday: EIA
These TWP Playbook Set-ups were in play on Tuesday:
- CL: IBGW, XTFD
IDEAS from the QUICKSHEET:
- NKD: is balanced across many timeframes. Looking for a “move” from this price.
- ES: is balanced across many timeframes. Looking for a “move” from this price.
- RTY: is balanced across many timeframes. Looking for a “move” from this price.
- ZB: is balanced across many timeframes. Looking for a “move” from this price.
- BTC: is balanced across many timeframes. Looking for a “move” from this price.
>> We’ll discuss the plans and playbook opportunities off them in the SLACK.
>>If you are confused and need some help in these new “fiscal” markets….please feel free to reach out in Slack or via email.
