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092122 FUTURES TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET: #ES_F #NQ_F #RTY_F #CL_F $VIX $SPY

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>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY


REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:

EQUITIES::

Neutral activity as the auction is uncertain heading into Wednesday’s FOMC.  The auction was successful at migrating value lower to our “magnets” from yesterday’s plan.  

The plan for Wednesday will be very simple….watch and observe, but DO NOT ACT!!  We will use the information gathered to aid us in decisions for Thursday when the price action is likely to be cleaner.  In particular, note where the equities resolve relative to the balancing ranges they’ve developed for the last several sessions:

  • ES: 3850-3917 with 3880 5D
  • NQ: 11775-12015 with 11930 the 5D
  • RTY:  1783-1830 with 1803 the 5D

As a focus this week…always ask yourself where the price is relative to value.  Heading into FOMC….price and value are converged…primed for a move!

Catalysts[LINK TO CALENDAR]: Headline risk (Ukraine & Fed). Wed: FOMC; Fri: JPOW

Significant “Binary” references still in play in the auction (prices adjusted for roll):

PRODUCT

JUNE CPI

JUNE FOMC 

JULY CPI

JULY FOMC

AUG CPI

SEP CPI

ES

3810-4036.75 3775.50-3810

3806-3878

3993-4007

4156.75-4209.75

4135.75-4191.75

NQ

12230.50-12414.75 11577-11683 11661-12007.25

12507-12541

13190-13403.75

12670-12990.50

RTY

1836.6-1857.1 1730-1741 1719.4-1754.7

1830-1834.6

1924.5-1949.4

1885.7-1919.8

These TWP Playbook Set-ups were in play on Tuesday: 

  • ES: 2:25 PM XTFD long
  • NQ: 10:45 AM IBGW long; 2:19 PM XTFD long
  • RTY: 2:45 PM XTFD long

VIX Curve:  “Inverted Curve”  Stage set for Powell to be dovish in the event.  All the bears are in….We are on “reversion” watch now. 

  • NEAR CURVE VIX9D-VIX: 3.23 INVERTED (-4+ is complacent, >1 is fearful)
  • LONG CURVE VIX9D-VIX1Y: 0.82 INVERTED (-13+ is complacent, >0 is fearful)

CRUDE:: 

Gap open and reject quickly took Crude into the “chop” zone mentioned and offered a #PVAT chance in A period.  Then, sellers were more aggressive than expected, taking out IBL and trading below 50% of the prior trend day.  EIA on Wednesday and sellers have the ball unless we can get above 85. 

Catalysts: Headline risk (Ukraine War & Inflation). Wed: EIA

These TWP Playbook Set-ups were in play on Tuesday: 

  • CL: 9:11 AM DOGW short
TRADEPLAN LEVELS FOR ES, NQ, RTY, CL

IDEAS from the QUICKSHEET:

  • Pound: Looking for long-term options plays
  • RBOB: Looking for long-term option entries
  • Natty Gas: Natty gas is in extreme posture.  Very interested if we push lower on Tuesday and fail…TGT 1 is 8.20, then 8.43
VIEW THE QUICKSHEET

 

>> We’ll discuss the plans and playbook opportunities off them in the SLACK.

>>If you are confused and need some help in these new “fiscal” markets….please feel free to reach out in Slack or via email. 

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