>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:
EQUITIES::
Neutral activity as the auction is uncertain heading into Wednesday’s FOMC. The auction was successful at migrating value lower to our “magnets” from yesterday’s plan.
The plan for Wednesday will be very simple….watch and observe, but DO NOT ACT!! We will use the information gathered to aid us in decisions for Thursday when the price action is likely to be cleaner. In particular, note where the equities resolve relative to the balancing ranges they’ve developed for the last several sessions:
- ES: 3850-3917 with 3880 5D
- NQ: 11775-12015 with 11930 the 5D
- RTY: 1783-1830 with 1803 the 5D
As a focus this week…always ask yourself where the price is relative to value. Heading into FOMC….price and value are converged…primed for a move!
Catalysts[LINK TO CALENDAR]: Headline risk (Ukraine & Fed). Wed: FOMC; Fri: JPOW
Significant “Binary” references still in play in the auction (prices adjusted for roll):
|
PRODUCT |
JUNE CPI |
JUNE FOMC |
JULY CPI |
JULY FOMC |
AUG CPI |
SEP CPI |
|
ES |
3810-4036.75 | 3775.50-3810 |
3806-3878 |
3993-4007 |
4156.75-4209.75 |
4135.75-4191.75 |
|
NQ |
12230.50-12414.75 | 11577-11683 | 11661-12007.25 |
12507-12541 |
13190-13403.75 |
12670-12990.50 |
|
RTY |
1836.6-1857.1 | 1730-1741 | 1719.4-1754.7 |
1830-1834.6 |
1924.5-1949.4 |
1885.7-1919.8 |
These TWP Playbook Set-ups were in play on Tuesday:
- ES: 2:25 PM XTFD long
- NQ: 10:45 AM IBGW long; 2:19 PM XTFD long
- RTY: 2:45 PM XTFD long
VIX Curve: “Inverted Curve” Stage set for Powell to be dovish in the event. All the bears are in….We are on “reversion” watch now.
- NEAR CURVE VIX9D-VIX: 3.23 INVERTED (-4+ is complacent, >1 is fearful)
- LONG CURVE VIX9D-VIX1Y: 0.82 INVERTED (-13+ is complacent, >0 is fearful)
CRUDE::
Gap open and reject quickly took Crude into the “chop” zone mentioned and offered a #PVAT chance in A period. Then, sellers were more aggressive than expected, taking out IBL and trading below 50% of the prior trend day. EIA on Wednesday and sellers have the ball unless we can get above 85.
Catalysts: Headline risk (Ukraine War & Inflation). Wed: EIA
These TWP Playbook Set-ups were in play on Tuesday:
- CL: 9:11 AM DOGW short
IDEAS from the QUICKSHEET:
- Pound: Looking for long-term options plays
- RBOB: Looking for long-term option entries
- Natty Gas: Natty gas is in extreme posture. Very interested if we push lower on Tuesday and fail…TGT 1 is 8.20, then 8.43
>> We’ll discuss the plans and playbook opportunities off them in the SLACK.
>>If you are confused and need some help in these new “fiscal” markets….please feel free to reach out in Slack or via email.
