Some thoughts to start the week:
Post OPEX and Equities are near the lows of October with a week of full trading in the month to go. Expecting lower prices in the equities, but caution against chasing lower early in the week. The composite profiles signal an easy trap for late sellers who try and jump on the train early on Monday.
We have Big Tech Earnings this week, along with PCE on Friday as the key catalysts. It’s kind of a make-or-break place for tech. We are likely to push below the 14650-15750 macro bracket into the composite LVN around 14550. If we can then accept back inside of the bracket, then 14900 is in play. If we can’t accept back inside….14269 is the next area of interest.
Note that we also have Note Auctions Tues, Wed, & Thurs. Watch out for 1PM EST volatility.
The VIX curve continues to tighten. We’ve still not seen an inversion since March. We could see the full curve invert as early as this week on the heels of Big Tech earnings.
VIX Curve: Curve tightened into OPEX. 9D is inverted above the VIX. An early bit of weakness in the week could take the curve inverted and set the stage for “reversion watch” Still enough room in the curve to get the SPY to 417 before that.
Get our daily outlook for ES, NQ, RTY & CL free! Sign up here.
Stay up to date with us via our Twitter posts this week.
Define your risk and trade well!
