REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:
We got the lower prices as expected in the equities and Crude. Now, we wait for FOMC and Uncle Jerome. The trigger words will be accelerated taper or a number of rate hikes to combat inflation.
>>FOMC day is a great day to NOT trade, or look to products that are not largely impacted by the FOMC (grains & meats).
We will mark the SOC (scene of the crime) of the release and watch acceptance above or below this price afterward into Thursday. Be on the lookout for moves that move swiftly away from the SOC and then return later in the session or the next day as they will most likely trigger excursion.
VIX Curve: “Normal Curve” / More fear heading into FOMC. Plenty of fear, but there is room for the curve to get more fearful with the event. 9D and 1YR have some work to do, so we’d need to see a big ramp in the 9D to get some sellers stuck.
- NEAR CURVE VIX9D-VIX: -.87 (-4+ is complacent, >1 is fearful)
- LONG CURVE VIX9D-VIX1Y: –7.7 (-13+ is complacent, >0 is fearful)
Catalysts: EIA(Crude) and FOMC release with Powell Q&A
IDEAS from the QUICKSHEET:
- GC: Defending the break from balance at 1784. Target 1 acheived. 1756 target 2.
- BTC: Bitcoin is holding YTD VWAP. That’s an area to look for a bounce and longs back toward 48K first and then 51K. Needs to hold YTD VWAP
- ZB: Watching for move from 162’07 post FOMC. Favor the short side. Target 1 160’20, Target 2 158’28. Wrong above 164’12
- TSLA: Held 950 with a close. Defending LOD for 1025 swing. 1085 Target 2.