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Another good example of the "test" behavior in Crude on Wednesday.  Early follow through from Tuesday's trend day higher was rejected and…
Post holiday trade on Tuesday.  Divergence across the equities.  Neutral day in NQ.  RTY printing an "outside" day and ES printing an…
Market still struggling to get "2nd moves."  Friday "should've" seen follow through lower to new RTH lows after the outside selling on…
Review and Expectations for the coming week: New ATHs on the backs of NVDA, but this time....we didn't gap and hold.  Instead,…
Text book example of the ”test” behavior in the auction on Thursday.  ”Tests” always look like new moves to begin with, and…
Spots of volatility as expected on Wednesday.  Sellers attempted to push below composite value references, but being unable to close below them.…
5D has migrated higher as we head into the fullest schedule of catalysts for Qs.  Buyers continue to hold from Monday’s directional…
Good follow through to start the week.  Qs working a range from 600-800.  5D migrated to price.  That makes 700 key. TRADEPLAN…
More “backfill” in the auction on OPEX Friday 👇 TRADEPLAN for Monday: Post OPEX.  After a couple neutral and rotational days, expecting…
Review and Expectations for the coming week: RVOL remains suppressed as the auction works its way toward summer.  Still, decent playbook opportunities:…
A "Pause" on Thursday in the equities as expected.  When an auction is above "value" the auction often will trade sideways (balance)…
Equities continued a push from balance higher off an inflation report that was inline with expectations.  No new hedges required and away…
PPI and Powell.  Sellers failed to gain any acceptance.  Late session rallies in ES and NQ set the stage for new ATHs…
Painfully tight and slow markets on Monday.  It's clear the auction is waiting for catalysts before new movement can begin. ES, NQ,…
Buyers started higher early in the week last week and were able to accept value in the direction of the key composite…
Expectations for the coming week: Fed speakers attempted to talk the markets down last week AND failed!  Without real catalyst to bring…
Gap down and run up in NQ maintains the chance for buyers to test the massive composite HVN above at 18300.  That…
Gap down and run up in NQ maintains the chance for buyers to test the massive composite HVN above at 18300.  That…
Following with the weekly narrative, NQ pushed up into the large composite volume area that represents much of the 1st quarter.  Neutral…
Good expected behavior in Crude today.  Tag of YTD VWAP corresponded with LT composite high volume to slow the downward auction and…
Friday's NFP gap solidified a fight between 2 distinct composite distributions in the auction.  17900 left as the pivot for the coming…
Expectations for the coming week: Equity markets waded through quite a lot of data in the past week and ended the week…
The fight for directional control of equities continues.  Each release or catalyst the last couple of weeks has served to challenge the…
FOMC decision and press conference on Wednesday.  Result was as expected.  Fed did not raise nor cut.  Powell also held firm in…
Tuesday was a good example for why a tradeplan has multiple scenarios. I have 3 when I come into the session: 1…
Very tight range and low RVOL to start the week.  The ”balancing” led to a shift higher in the 5D, making 17896…
Expectations for the coming week: Loads of economic data on deck.  End of month.  AAPL, AMZN earnings, FOMC and NFP. Last week's…
Gap down and run up is one of my least favorite auction behaviors, particularly when it's a tier 3 gap!  A tier…
META made an “outsized” move on its earnings report.  By “outsized” I mean beyond the “expected range.”  FYI, the options market is…
Continuation in the "responsive" rallies in equities.  Strong directional opens across the board.  Accepting higher past econ releases and innto TSLA earnings.…
Some “responsive” relief in equities on Monday.  No new weekly ranges so far.  This holds with the narrative of “higher early in…
ES and NQ sellers buried the auctions into OPEX. RTY was a bit stronger. CL returned to the 80-83 range. TRADEPLAN for…
At the end of the week, it’s quite likely that pundits on financial news will cite the geopolitical tension as the reason…
Equities continue to display broad weakness in the face of no rate cuts.   We saw early responsive activity find afternoon sellers.…
After migrating 5D value lower, equities moved in concert to lower RTH prices.  The Fed Beige book brought a little bit of…
Tuesday, Powell was on deck and it was an "acceptance" day.  Equities behaved as expected, printing lower RTH prices in rotational days.…
Monday was significant to the auction.  Broad conviction of direction in the equities.  Printing new monthly lows and seeing references like YTD…
Another reversal of trend day for equities.  Overnight reversals are becoming more of a reality as 0DTE rules day to day. It…
CPI, PPI, and Fed Minutes gave investors little to cheer for last week.  Price action remains inconsistent and full of reversals. The…
When we didn't see more put buyers coming in after PPI and Jobless claims, Wednesday's hedges were unwound.  We continue to struggle…
Strong reaction lower post CPI.  ES and RTY made new weekly lows.  NQ was the laggard and struggled to breach the 18100-18600…
Tuesday gave directional movement in equities as expected, but lack of follow through ended the session waiting on Wednesday's catalysts. Continuing to…
Back from some time off.  Making some edits to the Daily Outlook format to condense keep things useful. Monday continued the responsive…
Powell after ISM data and buyers kick saved equities from impending doom.  Back to neutral posture on the week with NFP on…
The vulnerability in the VIX curve provided opportunity for price to move swiftly lower on Tuesday, with equities moving in concert and…
After a long holiday, the auction has to go through a process of digesting anything that happened over the weekend.  In this…
End of quarter low RVOL action Into a long Holiday weekend VIX complacency remains, but catalyst is lacking Outperformance of RTY to…
Very challenging week with low RVOL and shortened week to close the quarter.  Complacency abounds.  The expected put buyers into Powell on…
Very nervous auction in the equities with good conviction in the first hour and last hour. Movement heavily influenced by 0DTE flows…
Very low RVOL in the session made price action erratic and challenging. The vulnerability we noted in the $VIX curve provided the…
Gap lower in NQ as expected, but buyers bought it up and shifted 5D higher. ES accepted lower and expecting lower again…
Very odd behavior with poor highs and lows in NQ and ES.  RTY had conviction.  Crude balanced. TRADEPLAN for Monday: CATALYSTS: Fed…
FOMC and VIXperation the key catalysts for last week and buyers won the day.  Early lower prices were bought in enough time…
Thursday digested the move from FOMC.  Much tighter ranges in the direction of Thursday's trends...as expected. TRADEPLAN for Friday: CATALYSTS: Powell before…
FOMC came and went and the Fed did as expected.  No rate cuts and per our weekly outlook, with acceptance above 5233,…
Equities attempted to gap lower away from balance, but failed to find follow on participants, taking the auction back to balance in…
Post OPEX and we saw reflexive rallies in ES and NQ as dealers likely had to buy back hedges as puts expired…
TRADEPLAN for Monday: CATALYSTS: All eyes on FOMC and VIXperation on Wednesday VIEW DETAILED TRADEPLANS Scenarios, commentary, and charts for ES, NQ,…
Quite a lot on deck last week with 2 inflation reports and Triple Witching at the end of the week.   Not a…
Review from Thursday: PPI before the open.  Negative reaction in the equities with the strongest being from RTY.  ES and NQ held…
Review from Wednesday: ES and NQ failed to get prior trend day follow through and NQ challenged the trend. Signals everyone waiting…
Review from Tuesday: ES and NQ presented ORR open types into trend days higher.  DOGW and TRCT playbook trades offered. Crude struggling…
TRADEPLAN for Tuesday: CATALYSTS: CPI before the open.  Plot an aVWAP from the scene of the release and use as a "bias"…
TRADEPLAN for Monday: CATALYSTS: Contract roll for the equities.  Most platforms should adjust for the June contract.  Monday may be split volume…
Last week the ES came into the auction in an extreme posture. If you’re not sure what an "extreme posture" means, check…
TRADEPLAN for Friday: CATALYSTS: NFP before the open!  May the jobless rate be ever in your favor! We begin contract roll from…
TRADEPLAN for Thursday: CATALYSTS: Jobless claims & PCE before the open.  Powell speaking again.  Friday begins contract roll along with NFP!! VIEW…
Review of Monday: The theme on Monday was "challenge of strength" ES got post trend day follow through and ended the day…
Review of Friday: Equities made coordinated pushes higher from composite value to set the stage for higher prices and tighter ranges on…
We finished the seasonally weak February on the highs.  ES and NQ continue to ride high on the backs of the AI…
Review of Friday: PCE before the open.  Any weakness in the equities on Wednesday was washed away as the catalyst took us…
Review of Thursday: GDP before the open.  NQ, shown below moved from composite balance at 18015 and held weekly lows into the…
Review of Tuesday: Another day of divergence in equities while Crude powered to new weekly highs. How did I see the divergence…
Review of Monday: Even if you only trade one product, it's helpful to have awareness of correlated products.  This is one of…
Review of Friday: As we often mention on Fridays, if we are near extreme prices of the week, unless counter activity comes…
Last week was the best week of 2024 to break things and yet NVDA did the heavy lifting.  ES and NQ both…
Review of Thursday: If Wednesday was a “hostage” day, Thursday was the day the ran amok.  No trapped participants, instead we witnessed…
Review of Wednesday: Wednesday was a "hostage" day.  The auction was held hostage by a Fed speaker, FOMC minutes, and NVDA earnings…
Review of Tuesday: It's always good to be patient after a long weekend.  It's good to let the auction digest weekend news…
It was a week of transition for markets with several notable behaviors amidst 2 inflation reports and 2 expirations.  This combined with…
Review of Thursday: ES: 4th neutral day in a row. Closed the CPI gap. Closed above pWVPOC. Early week liquidations have found…
Review of Wednesday: Lot of fight in these products. 3rd neutral day in a row for equities.  There is a fight for…
Review of Tuesday: When an auction is complacent, it is very easy for a catalyst to bring it out of complacency.  Also,…
Review of Monday: Rotation-type behavior in the equities on Monday, with RTY very strong and ES and NQ closing weakly.  RTY has…
Review of Friday: NQ continues to hold anchored value references in the march toward declining composite inventory. Buyers of all references remain…
ES and NQ moved higher as expected last week into ever declining composite inventory.  While not something we look at everyday, it’s…
Review of Thursday: Buyers of all references remain in control.  See chart of NQ above and note in review below. ES: An…
Review of Wednesday: After the "inside" non-trend day on Tuesday....ES was primed to move from balance at 4970.  We got the move…
Review of Tuesday: Both NFP and FOMC aVWAPs holding against tests.  NQ also tested a key composite and found buyers.  Weekly narrative…
Review of Monday: NFP follow-through day.  Not exactly the type of activity that suggests there is significant confidence in the data, however,…
Review of Friday: NFP before the open.  Plotting an aVWAP to the release once again gave aid in discerning who was controlling…
Review of last week: ES: As expected, FOMC, Mth End, Big Tech & NFP led to a volatile week with excursion above…
Review of Thursday: Post FOMC trade failed to get follow through in ES and NQ on the anticipation of earnings from AAPL,…
Review of FOMC Wednesday: The Fed kept rates in place as expected.  No cuts yet my friends.  So, the path of least…
Review of Tuesday: Early indecision, followed by later conviction.  Note this chart in the NQ:   As the auction balanced, large selling…
Review of Monday: After indecisive morning trade...afternoon buyers came in with heavy option flow (bought calls, sold puts) to drive the auction…
Review of Friday: ES: 3rd session of balance n a tight range from 4895-4934. 2 Neutral days and an "inside" day. Auction…
Review of last week: ES: Auction began in new bullish posture. Accepting short term value around 4916 after being unable to push…
Review of Thursday: ES: Inside day did not get the follow through expected from the prior neutral extreme. Auction attempting to balance…
Many developing traders want to try and pick tops.  The reality is that you don't have to.  You can let the market…
Review of Tuesday: A very tepid tempo for ES and NQ until late in the session. ES: OAIR gave way to initial…
Review of Monday: New move? Or “test”? Monday’s acceptance higher confirmed new move for now. ES: Gap open to our 4890, almost…
Review of Friday: OPEX Friday! OPEX has a way of "freeing" markets to move and move the equities did! ES: With an…
Review of last week: ES: With acceptance above 4810, we got to 4850+ moving from a balanced posture into a bullish one.…
Review of Thursday: Lots of neutral activity in ES and NQ signals a fight underway.  Ultimately, the buyers won, but they gave…
Review of Wednesday: VIXperation, a Bond Auction & the Fed Beige Book offered lots to navigate around. ES: Gap open below the…
Thoughts from Tuesday: Long weekends are always a clue to come into the new week with patience. The auction still provided good…
Thoughts from Friday: PPI was impactful, particularly on RTY.  All equities rejected tests higher and closed either back at or below the…
Some reflections from last week: 2 significant releases in CPI and PPI were unable to dampen the beginning of year flows that…
Thoughts from Thursday: CPI impactful as expected.  Gave us good tempo and wide Initial Balance.  PVAT and DOGW in play early for…
Thoughts from Wednesday: New RTH highs in ES and NQ as expected.  Less expected was the 3rd session of trending behavior and…
Thoughts from Tuesday: ES and NQ buyers followed through on the Monday trend days as expected, but not before we back-filled poor…
Thoughts from Monday: We got the directional days from balance we expected, just not in the expected direction for ES and NQ. …
Thoughts from Friday: Globex sellers into NFP were too short and returned to composite value as expected on a failure to build…
Some reflections from last week: A shortened week to begin the year.  Equities moved in tandem from the start to one-time frame…
Thoughts from Thursday: There was enough "responsive" activity to balance enough to pull the 5D lower in Equities.  This gives us good…
>> This is the first Daily Outlook for 2024!   Thoughts from the start of 2024: We ended 2023 with inventory thin at…
>> This is the final Daily Outlook for 2023!  Thanks for following along and interacting with the plans and quicksheet.  We hope…
Thoughts from Wednesday: Low RVOL session with strong directional conviction higher, further exacerbating the one time framing from the days before. RTY…
Thoughts from the Tuesday: We are still completing the "roll" from December to March. CPI brought early liquidation that offered entry DATR…
Thoughts from the Monday: Split volume in the indexes as we moved further into the roll from December to March.  We saw…
Thoughts from the Friday: NFP before the open. Equities responded favorably as there were no surprises.  All put in one time frame…
Some reflections from last week: Liquidation attempts in the auction failed to gain follow through.  Buyers were strengthened by the failure to…
Thoughts from the session: Liquidations that don’t get follow through strengthen the auction and conviction to move higher.  The inability of NQ…
Thoughts from the session: Some less expected behavior on Wednesday as ES and NQ gapped and failed.  This affirms why we have…
Thoughts from the session: ES and NQ attempted to test in the direction of control on Tuesday.  Buyers extended IBH and NQ…
Thoughts from the session: Friday's trends were challenged with ES and NQ opening below the preIB bias.  This meant we SOH and…
Thoughts from the session: New month flows led to strong buying in ES and RTY to end the week. NQ was lagging…
Some reflections from last week: Buyers held court at the 5D and migrated value higher in the equities. RTY broke out from…
Thoughts from the session: Good follow through in the equities after Wednesday’s rejection of higher prices.  ES, NQ, & RTY all printed…
Thoughts from the session: Failed attempts higher off the GDP release.  Structurally, we expected higher prices into Wednesday and anticipation of the…
Thoughts from the session: Equities attempted to liquidate on the open, but buyers defended and took price across the balance ranges we're…
Thoughts from the session: False starts and fake moves to start as expected.  Great reminder of why to wait for some development…
Thoughts from the session: RVOL remains a challenge ES and NQ put in "non-trend" days on Wednesday.  This makes the RTH high…
Some reflections from last week: Fairly typical Holiday week.  Relative volume diminished as the week went on.  Equities didn't make a lot…
If you are taking a DIY (Do It Yourself) approach to your trading development....here are some helpful tips we've learned while supporting…
Thoughts from the session: When an auction opens and challenges the preIB bias (as ES, NQ, & RTY did on Tuesday), it's…
Thoughts from the session: "Inside/out" expectations were met in the ES and NQ as they moved from balance post OPEX.  First weekly…
Thoughts from the session: OPEX brought neutral behavior in the ES and NQ.  Not unusual given OPEX.  We have balanced enough to…
Some reflections from last week: Congress was effective in pushing the Debt Ceiling debate into 2024.  The next hurdle is the week…
Thoughts from the session: Equities behaved as expected, with just enough liquidation to help migrate 5D value higher and give fuel for…
Thoughts from the session: On days following significant releases, I track the aVWAP for several sessions as they are good guages (along…
Thoughts from the session: Following CPI, I saw 2 opportuities to express “playbook” ideas.  Both of them incorporated the aVWAP from the…
Thoughts from the session: RVOL (relative volume) was terrible.  We track participation on a rolling monthly basis.  Reminded me of summer trading. …
Equities closed the week on emotional trends higher.  Lots of impulsive structure.  So, for Monday, be patient.  No new longs unless we…
Some thoughts to start the week: When an auction fails to get follow-through (Thursday's sellers) it can begin a chain reaction of…
Thursday we were primed for a directional move and it came late in the session.  Note how composite value references played in…
Wednesday was a great example of the interplay of composite and intraday references to present key areas of expected behavior as seen…
Tuesday played almost perfectly.  ES and NQ pushed away from the new 5D VPOCs.  Crude broke from balance lower.  RTY got the…
If you are taking a DIY (Do It Yourself) approach to your trading development....here are some helpful tips we've learned while supporting…
After the monster FOMC, NFP ramp of last week, it was very likely to be a rotational day on Monday as the…
Appreciated the opportunity to speak with Aaron Korbs of the Speculators Podcast. We talked about process into a "playbook"
Post FOMC with no new hikes combined with AAPL earnings and equities are charging higher to look for sellers.  We are now…
Happy FOMC day! May the rates be ever in your favor! Odds today favor no rate hike: As we look into the…
Month-end games back in force as we reversed trend and traded higher on Monday in NQ and ES.  RTY put in an…
Back healthy and ready to head into a BIG week of catalysts while the equities are at critical inflection points. Neutral activity…
Some thoughts to start the week: Coming into the end of the month and we are seeing the auction play out on…
>> No "tradeplan" for Friday as I get well from sickness.  I caught a bug and missed getting the DAILY OUTLOOK out…
Tuesday, we expected attempts higher (day type follow through combined with short end of VIX curve inverted), but then a more tepid…
Monday was a great example of the auction moving higher to find sellers and this is exactly what the Equities did. Tuesday,…
Expecting lower RTH prices on Monday following the OPEX trend into the close.  Caution against being aggressive to the short side as…
Some thoughts to start the week: Post OPEX and Equities are near the lows of October with a week of full trading…
This video reviews trading from the prior session in preparation for the coming session.  It also highlights the concept of "Rare Stat…
JPOW brought the fireworks for Thursday.  It was a RARE stat day.  What's a rare stat day?  Watch the video below. 👇…
VIXperation allowed for some unpinning of the auction from its recent ranges.  You can see the contrast here in the comparison of…
Balanced markets waiting to get past OPEX and the "unpinning" of the auction. I'm a real believer in the perspective that price…
Reversal of fortunes in the Equities to start the week via short covering rallies. You can always tell a short covering rally…
Expecting lower prices on Monday (ETH at least) after Friday's sell-off.  Rotations in the direction of the trend are in order.  Potential…
Some thoughts to start the week: Late-week weakness in the equities and Crude rallied.  This takes us into OPEX week and expectations…
PPI and FOMC minutes on Wednesday.  We were looking for a B2ND chance off the minutes, but there was no 2nd move,…
CPI before the open on Thursday and ES and NQ held up rather well early.  RTY took it on the chin, but…
It appeared early on that we were set for our 3rd trend day in a row in the equities.  Then, the catalyst…
There is an adage that has served me well when it comes to geopolitical events.  Rather than assuming my perspective on the…
What a beautiful example of the "2nd" move phenomenon in equities following NFP on Friday.  This has all the longer-term charts thinking…
Some thoughts to start the week: Balance came early in the week as all eyes were on NFP at the end of…
Very balanced behavior in front of NFP in the equities.  Tempo almost felt like summer trading.  We are primed for a "move"…
Divergences once again in the equities as it appears no one wants to make a convicted bet yet in Q3...perhaps not until…
The divergences in the equities we saw on Monday gave way to broad conviction on Tuesday.  Sellers renewed their strength after the…
Divergences in the equities are always challenging.  We had IBH in NQ.  IBL and trend in RTY & Neutral in ES.  We…
Equities ended the month & quarter with bearish imbalances.  Congress kick saved the shut-down, but only for about 45 days. For Monday,…
Some thoughts to start the week: Acceptance lower was the name of the game to end the month & quarter.  Pressure remains…
End of the week, month & quarter.  We have a portion of the VIX curve now inverted.  I’d categorize the current rally…
ES and NQ offered a host of playbook trades on Wednesday…PVAT, DATR, IBGW & the most epic XTFD we’ve seen in a…
Tuesday was one of those rare days where every product in the tradeplan violated the preIB bias.  Fortunately, by having a scenario…
Yesterday's note: "Be on the lookout for early spikes lower to new weekly low ranges.  This, combined with the posture could signal…
We continue the"change of character" market with the Equities holding the gaps created post FOMC.  We are nearing some important inflection points…
Some thoughts to start the week: A break from balance lower post the FOMC statement starts the week with equities on the…
I would characterize Thursday as a "change of character" day in the 2023 auction.  We got some of the balancing that we'd…
We were balanced coming into the announcement and Powell's comments.  As his Q&A progressed...sellers became more convicted.  Thursday will be the true…
Lower prices in the equities on Tuesday as hedgers took advantage of the underpriced puts and reflexively took us lower.  Now, the…
Monday played about as expected.  We got new RTH lows in ES and NQ in follow through from the trend days on…
Bearish close to the week for ES and NQ.  Bearish postures into FOMC week.  Unless FOMC saves us....we're headed lower.  Immediately lower…
The inside/out trade worked great on Thursday as PPI and consumer confidence players were unable to hold below the CPI aVWAPs and…
We got some movement off CPI, but no new hedging, so the zero DTE puts bought into CPI burned off and dealers…
ES and NQ faltered later in the session as we expected with the pending CPI and lack of hedging.  The VIX curve…
Fully into December contract for equities now.  Split volume on Monday and we'll see diminished volume in September each day into OPEX…
It's contract roll week leading into Triple Witching OPEX at the end of the week.  CPI on Tuesday. Lots of moving parts…
We begin the roll period to the December contract in equities today and will be officially on the Dec contract on Monday. …
Equities exploring lower on Wednesday.  RTY achieved it's weekly expected target.  ES and NQ are approaching theirs while still putting in "inside"…
First day back after the long Holiday weekend.  Good to take it easy.  NQ offered a nice IBGW counter to the preIB…
First day back after the long Holiday weekend.  It's the official end of summer trading.  We are now on the march to…
I'm trying to take some time to rest this week.  Here's something to tide you over until we get back in action…
Thursday's trade demonstrated the key understanding that if value can't follow price, price returns to value.  ES and NQ were unable to…
Short covering rallies in ES and NQ into NVDA earnings kept the pressure on the shorts all day.   Potential for gap opens…
Higher prices again on Tuesday as expected AND sellers rejected the lower prices (also potential given the value placement of the trends…
Monday we continued responsive buying as the auction seeks balance. Responsive buying is short covering so we are watching for sellers to…
After 3 trend days lower in the equities, we finally auctioned low enough to bring in counter participants.  Now, note that the…
Thursday was our 3rd trend day lower in equities….in a row.  This is a RARE stat.  The probability that we get 2…
FOMC minutes on Wednesday helped the auction play out largely as expected. Early in the session, we got new RTH lows and…
Trend days higher reversed by trend days lower.  Equities are signalling to the world that they should buy protection.  And, it seems…
OPEX week kicked off in fine form with all products in the tradeplan challenging their preIB bias and auctioning higher.  This is…
OPEX week!  VIX curve saw first noticeable tightening but failed to find other put buyers.  This took us home with lower equity…
We came into Thursday knowing that CPI was driving the show and it did indeed.  We let the auction tell us how…
Wednesday was a great example of the ebb and flow of day types.  With more directional types the day before, the expectation…
Divergences in the indexes on Monday.  NQ got follow through to new RTH lower, then neutral. ES had an inside day.  RTY…
In this example, we look at Apple ($AAPL) after a recent earnings release and we use composite volume profile analysis to set…
NFP on Friday initially appeared to support buyers, but after lunch, sellers came in to take the ES and NQ neutral extreme. …
Thursday was a balancing day, as expected. Friday will be driven by reaction to Apple and Amazon earnings as well as non-farm…
Much was made overnight about the US Credit downgrade.  In the end, that doesn't mean much.  I was here for the last…
New month and very tight trading.  ES and NQ in tight 3 day ranges still inside of last Thursday's post FOMC multi-distribution…
A key to trading consistency is to do consistent things in consistent contexts. We define context using "Auction Postures" Even if you…
End-of-month games in play.  RTY pushed to the weekly target higher.  Crude gapped into extreme posture and ES and NQ trapped sideways.…
Friday was a "neutral" day for equities in the sense that they neutralized the trend days of Thursday.  Month-end games in play…
A post-FOMC gap higher trapped chasers and put on the pain as the auction used a positive GDP number to offset.  The…
No plan for Wednesday as it was FOMC day and we take those days off to relax, watch the move, preserve capital,…
Divergences in the Equities as Crude powered higher to the weekly target higher. Tuesday, we have consumer confidence at B period and…
Big week ahead with Big Tech earnings and FOMC! Development Focus Question from the PATHWAY: MOD 15:  How are you monitoring the…
Pre-OPEX sell-off in ES and NQ sets the stage for continuation on Friday.  See the VIX curve.  We saw an ever so…
Saw a little activity by sellers in the neutral activity of ES and NQ heading into TSLA earnings.  Still, we managed to…
Tuesday was a classic example for why we monitor balance to anticipate "moves."  All of the equities moved strongly from 5D balance. …
Sorry for the delay.....tech issues.  Bank earnings before the bell.  Tesla earnings after the bell on Wednesday.  Wednesday is also VIXperation Development…
Review: Equities approaching full froth over summer while no one is at home.  Headwinds coming as we have achieved the expected high…
!!ON VACATION THIS WEEK.  NO TRADEPANS.  ONLY VIX CURVE & QUICKSHEET UPDATED!! NFP is past.  Biggest focus for the week is earnings…
Some put buyers came in off Jobless claims and tightened the VIX curve ever so slightly.  We'll see if NFP brings any…
Pretty typical for low RVOL session to start the week.  Thankfully, we still have decent ranges to trade.  Let's never go back…
New week! Month! Quarter!  It's halftime and time to focus development toward the volatility to come.  We are in a window of…
Review: ES closed above prior week VPOC and set to push to new week highs RTY completed weekly objective with return to…
Review: Powell speaking at the open, had no major impact on the direction of the auction. VIX complacency reigns, still may not…
Review: VIX curve tightening, still may not get real move lower until July NQ and ES canceled the trends lower with trends…
Review: VIX curve tightening and put buyers coming in at the close of the session NQ and ES made new weekly lows.…
Review: VIX curve still remains historically complacent....which is a sign of caution!! Timing may be after month end. Inside week for ES…
Review: VIX curve still remains historically complacent....which is a sign of caution!! Divergence in the equities.  RTY broke down below the key…
Review: VIX curve remains historically complacent. No love for Powell from Equity participants.  Considerable weakness into the close, puts ES, RTY, &…
Review: Equities pushed lower to start the week and buyers came back later in the session to save price in front of…
Review: OPEX into a long weekend Equities finally settled down a bit and likely now to head into "rest" phase of the…
Review: Post FOMC trade and ES and NQ buyers got above the FOMC aVWAPs and drove convincingly higher into trend days. Crude…
Review: FOMC day. Fed paused as expected, but brought expectations that hikes would persist ES and NQ took it in stride closing…
Review: CPI before the open.  As expected, the release brought volatility in the width of the range, but no volatility in terms…
Review: Split volume led to trending behavior in ES and NQ. ES and NQ are into "rare" air.   Radar is up for…
Review: Wide rotational days in Equities due to contract roll Crude rested after Thursday's big range day Expectations for the next session:…
Review: We got lower RTH prices in ES and then buyers stepped in. NQ made new ETH prices, but no RTH follow…
Review: "inside/out" auction in ES and NQ.  We pushed inside/out higher early, rejected back to balance and with confidence in the direction,…
Review: Balancing day for ES and NQ.  Auction is doing a good job defending against lower prices.  NQ migrated 5D higher today…
Review: Neutral activity in ES and NQ signals participants wanting to find rest.  Rotational days that returned to the NFP aVWAP and…
Review: The chase continues higher on the heels of the debt ceiling deal being signed.  Also, as we know from Module 2…
Review: Cluster of releases early led to strong directional conviction in ES, NQ, RTY & CL Great examples of IBGW and TRCT…
Review: End of the month.  ES and NQ ended near month highs, but monthly value divergent from price. ES buyers were able…
Review: Equities gapped to open, closed gaps and tried to find areas to balance.  ES was successful in pulling the 5D higher. …
Review: Good RVOL trends higher in ES and NQ while RTY lags continues to demonstrate the emotional market that is chasing yield…
Review: NQ shot higher due to NVDA earnings.  ES was in slight sympathy.  This leaves us with very divergent indexes as RTY…
Review: Got the new RTH lows in equities in the form of gaps and then they balanced in front of FOMC and…
Review: We got the move from balance in ES and NQ lower on news of a stall in the debt ceiling talks. …
Review: Balancing "non-trend" days in ES and NQ. No playbook trades in play for ES or NQ. RTY reversed the trend lower…
Review: OPEX VIX curve remains very complacent Equities "cooled" off and auctioned lower to find buyers to try and establish value higher. …
Review: 2nd emotional squeeze higher on catalyst over lunch that the debt ceiling would have negotiations. NQ continues to lead relative to…
Review: Squeeze higher on catalyst over lunch that the debt ceiling would have negotiations. Is this a new move or a "test"…
Review: Tech still driving higher. Tempo continues to be a challenge.  We get some movement early and then very late.  Feels very…
Review: Very cautious auction to start the week.  Noting the auction attempting higher first in the week (failure later in the week).…
Review: Liquidation in Equities off the consumer confidence numbers. 0DTE call buyers kick-saved the auction into the close. Equities caught in range…
Review: Note the above charts.  This tells much of the story of 2023 and is a macrocosm of this week.  Tech is…
Review: Post CPI and Equities closed above composite references despite attempts to accept below. NQ is much stronger relative to ES and…
Review: Balancing markets in front of CPI Equities divergent and trapped amidst many LT references Very difficult trade, but fruitful if you…
Review: Divergences in the indexes via auction posture show lack of directional conviction in front of CPI on Wednesday Crude continues to…
Review: NFP came out "hot" relative to expectations, but the market was largely driven higher by AAPL.  Multi-dist trend days higher in…
Review: Equities traded lower to start following FOMC and then balanced as we approached weekly expected lows and pending AAPL earnings.  AAPL…
Neutral activity post FOMC and equities closed lower.  We'll mark the aVWAPs from the releases at 2PM EST and use them as…
Some thoughts to start the week: The struggle for direction remains a challenge.  You will doubtless hear as many champions for the…
Post FOMC and we have NQ at month highs.  RTY at month lows and ES in the middle. The price action is…
Quad Witching is finally here! Equities (particularly tech) are ramping higher on the belief that the Fed is “pausing” which is being…
Row week into OPEX and oh what joy it is! Split volume and catalysts leads to choppy, choppy trade in very difficult…
Finally getting the data sorted to get back on schedule with outlooks.  Thanks for your patience. CPI came in as expected on…
Rotational days as expected in the equities as Powell gave his second day of testimony before congress. Jobless claims before the bell…
Large movement on Tuesday as expected as Powell reiterated that the Fed is against stocks. Wednesday Powell speaks again, but the impact…
The behavior on Monday was indicative of the market that we are in. We saw broad divergences in the equities between the…
Some thoughts to start the week: Late-week strength in equities should carry into the week, but we'll need to follow on participation…
It's funny how after today, analysts will say the move intraday came from a Fed comment.  We know better.  We anticipated the…
The macro narrative is starting to pick up influence in price as we are heading toward next week's NFP.  There is little…
Balancing day on Monday.  Neutral activity showing the lack of directional conviction. We remain in the "middle" of a multi-month range and…
Higher prices early in the week in equities means we are likely to see the lower weekly prices later in the week. …
Engulfing days in the equities shut off the one-time framing lower auction and take them out of the "move" phase into the…
Wednesday played about as expected.  We got good follow-through from Tuesday's trend days to get DATR shorts early and then play some…
Nice post-OPEX trend lower out of the inside weeks in the equities and back to significant prices in the ES, NQ, and…
Some thoughts to start the week: Post OPEX and a long holiday weekend.  Not much by way of catalysts in the week…
Some late hawkish comments from Fed's Bullard accelerated the weak structure to push lower, give us neutral activity in the ES and…
It took a bit for the equities to find their footing, but ultimately, we were able to push away from composite value…
Wide swings around prior week VPOCs in the equities with CPI, but remarkably little to do from a playbook perspective.  Expecting more…
Valentine's day on Tuesday.  If you love volatility, it will be a lover's paradise! The trade plan is simple.  Lean on key…
Equities closed on their lows of an "inside" week.  Crude closed on the highs of an "outside" week. It's the Monday before…
Take 30 minutes to review this overview of markets and gain some free education as we prepare for the coming week and…
Pre-CPI & OPEX jitters starting to encourage participants to reach for puts.  Maybe more people read about Cal Icahn's $24MM sub 4050…
As noted for Wednesday....the short-term impact of options buying after Powell on Tuesday was gone on Wednesday and participants did not rebid…
One of the oddest reversal rallies I have ever seen on a binary event happened on Tuesday after Fed Chairman Powell offered…
No major catalyst on Monday led to neutral auction behavior in the equities as markets await insight from Powell on Tuesday. Crude…
No major catalyst on Monday as we await Powell speaking on Tuesday. So, that leaves markets free to fly and fill in…
Take 40 minutes to review this overview of markets and gain some free education as we prepare for the coming week and…
Two major catalysts, complete, one more to go. We’ve had FOMC and big tech earnings. Now we just have nonfarm payroll‘s the…
Risk on appetite for equites post FOMC.  This helped the equities get to the weekly targets higher.  Now, we will look for…
We’ve arrived at the 2nd (CPI was the first) big catalyst of 2023, FOMC.  Happy FOMC day!  May the rates be ever…
Monday was a day to backfill and clean up references in the Equities and it was a day for Crude to push…
Equities ran into the rare air on Friday as traders piled into Tesla calls.  The behavior was once again very much like…
Take 30 minutes to review this overview of markets and gain some free education as we prepare for the coming week and…
After the gap and rally on Wednesday, Thursday was the gap and “crap” returning to the prior range to attract buyers that…
It was a gap and rally day in the indexes and a fight around EIA release and the prior week's VPOC in…
I mentioned how these markets are like August 2019....it was actually 2020.  Here's the chart... And then came September....can you say..."inventory correction?"…
Welcome to August 2019. This is when we first started to see the massive ramps of activity due to compounded moves in…
Friday's OPEX was a call buying extravaganza, but unlikely to sustain given the amount of volume expiring on Friday. This does entrench…
Take 35 minutes to review this overview of markets and gain some free education as we prepare for the coming week and…
Thursday gave us more information on this next phase of the equity auction and it was a reaffirmation of sellers.  Neutral activity…
After the “non-trend” days of NQ and RTY on Tuesday, “Vixperation” combined with the overnight BOJ release provided the juice to wake…
Tuesday was a struggle coming back from the long weekend. Both the NASDAQ and the Russell failed to extend the initial balance…
After the long weekend and the complacent curve, on the lookout for a bit of early inventory correction on Tuesday.  No big…
Take 35 minutes to review this overview of markets and gain some free education as we prepare for the coming week and…
Happy Friday the 13th! Post CPI and the big takeaway for me is the complacency in the VIX curve.  We may still…
Equities jammed higher into CPI tomorrow.  ES closed right on the 2022 VPOC. The VIX curve is mixed...so, not a whole lot…
Equities had a chance to fail back into the multi-session ranges, but Powell was able to kick save that.  Doesn't improve the…
Gap and fail in the equities as the “slope of hope” got in the way and wiser participants knew it was better…
We got the reaction off NFP that we expected, but we were left with continued range bound trade.  Still waiting for the…
Take 35 minutes to review this overview of markets and gain some free education as we prepare for the coming week and…
The first nonfarm payroll of 2023. May the jobless rate be ever in your favor. All week we’ve been looking for the…
ISM data and FOMC minutes and the result is that we are still in the same range and waiting for THE move.…
First day in 2023 and the holiday trade was put in its place. All the equities engulfed not only Friday’s trade, but…
Now is the time to put the work of the last several weeks to practice.  It's a new year. The first couple…
Holiday week.  Nice #3REV chances in equities after the trend lower on Monday.  We migrated the 5D lower to price.  With the…
Holiday week.  3rd trend day lower.  We can continue to push lower so long as the put buyers stay at bay.  This…
Holiday week.  We are past OPEX and the VIX curve remains remarkably complacent relative to the risk.  If we get early rallies…
OPEX week marches on.  We are mostly into March with good RVOL.  FOMC on Wednesday and OPEX on Friday. Plan for FOMC…
With the bulk of volume in the March contract we are now set for CPI on Tuesday.  Expect a violent and large…
Focused on the March contract in equities on Monday.  Watch the volume.  It will be split between the contracts and won't be…
Friday we begin contract roll from December to March.  The roll should be complete by Tuesday.  We will be quoting the December…
For the equities, it was a balancing day on Wednesday to pull value to price.  Now that we are balanced…waiting for the…
Clean up on aisle Jerome!  Equities retraced all the way back to the scene of Powell's comments last week...returning us to mid-term…
Much like last week…Equities pushed lower to begin the week.  Trend days across the products sets the expectation for rotations in the…
NFP on Friday gave us the movement we expected.  The initial reaction was lower....a condition of the lack of hedging in the…
Auction rested on Thursday as expected.  We gound selling excess off the ISM number. Friday will be all about the NFP before…
It was the “cure for cancer trade” today on comments from Powell that gave a low relative volume market everything it needed…
Rotations in the direction of the trend was on the menu for Tuesday and the auction Chef did not disappoint. Now, for…
The calendar is clear on Tuesday after the Fed's Bullard came in at lunch and helped accelerate equities down to key defense…
We have month end on Wednesday and some good morning releases.  Powell is now speaking on Wednesday. Whenever we come in from…
The week continues to play out as expected. Equities started their move from balance.  Crude continued to explore range in an attempt…
RVOL was a bit better on Monday in equities, but still anemic.  Any focus on short time frames is likely to leave…
OPEX on Friday and equities pinned around the highest open interest expiration strikes.  Heading into a holiday week.  The equities will open…
Equities pushed lower pre-market in sizeable gaps.  However, the pull of the highest "gamma" strike did it's thing and both ES and…
Very tight ranging day with low relative volume and choppy boxy trade. Overall, you’d be mistaken for looking at the structure of…
After pushing higher on PPI the auction failed as it was in stretched territory and then accelerated to the downside toward the…
When an auction is extended like the equities were at the end of last week....they need to correct.  You can correct by…
Last week felt like a month.  Wide ranges in the equities and a binary release in CPI that negated the weekly targets…
In the weekly outlook, there were 3 themes: the midterms, CPI and leptokurtosis. On Tuesday we have the midterms.  On Thursday, we…
With the elections still in play, but democrats performing much better than expected....the auction is taking it in stride and auctioning lower. …
A good day to follow structure in the auction as the RVOL was low as we suspected.  This led to some strong…
After frustrating early balance and chop in the equities, we finally got some mojo to help move the market after lunch, offering…
Neutral whippy action post NFP on Friday sets up more fight for price in the week ahead. US Midterms on Tuesday.  The…
Thursday was follow-through from FOMC.  Friday will be the reaction to the jobs report. Like with any binary event, we can see…
He had 1 job to do.  LOL! Powell again with the uber-hawkish tone sent the auction lower.  Particpants rushing into short-dated options…
Rejection of higher prices in ES and NQ.  A little more stable in RTY.  I didn't even look at Crude. ES traded…
An inside day in the ES and the NASDAQ while the Russell made new RTH highs in the direction of the trend.…
Whatever concern there was heading into AAPL & AMZN earnings, by the close of Friday...they were gone and the VIX curve further…
It was the "inside" out trade on Thursday after GDP pre-market and until we got to earnings after the close.  Very hard…
Balancing trade on Wednesday brought the 5D higher in ES and NQ.  RTY continued the move higher & Crude broke higher from…
With Google & Microsoft earnings after the close...we expected early moves and then balancing.  That's exactly what we got.  We also achieved…
From January to May of 2022.  We facilitated 150+ (167 is exact count) "Insight" sessions.  These were free 30min sessions traders could…
Well, Aunt Janet did little to move markets.  As a result, we had to wait until late in the session to see…
OPEX on Friday. Big ramps higher in ES and NQ as short dated puts were not rolled.  The velocity corresponded with the…
We have lots of conversations with traders in our PATHWAY about how to "stalk" trades....forcing the auction to come to them. There…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: A balancing day for the equities particularly in ES and NQ as they awaited Tesla earnings after the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Tuesday opened on a tier 3 gap higher.  This accomplished the expectation of weekly targets should we trade…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Equities trended higher overnight and held the trend into the RTH session.  While we printed an "inside" day...buyers…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: We got new RTH highs on Friday as expected following a double distribution trend day, but then sellers…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Delayed getting this out due to software issues Large move post CPI as expected.  Tier 3 gap lower…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Non-trend days in ES and NQ and neutral center in RTY.  All put in "inside" days and closed…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Tuesday again we saw an auction that behaved as needed to facilitate trade.  We needed to pull 5D…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Follow-on sellers on Monday accomplished the expectations left on Friday...that we would see new RTH lows and rotations. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Sellers went home short into the hole as put buyers came in on the backend of the strong…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Early attempts higher were prone for reversal and offered the opportunity to participate early as attempts at higher…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: 5D VPOC shifted higher as expected.  Change in posture for Thursday.  The auction accepting higher prices is fuel…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Gap and stick.  More blowout of expected ranges.  We closed above the weekly expected range of all the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Short covering was on order.  After new ETH lows and neutral behavior in Euro land.....we opened in range…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Friday, Equities ended the week/month/quarter on the lows.  Neutral extreme lower days in the ES and NQ.  Neutral…
The following is a stream of posts made to our development team in SLACK related to this scenario plan for S&P futures…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Thursday is a great reason why we have a "preIB bias" as part of our plan.  All things…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: "Tests" below the balancing ranges in globex brought a failure that set us up to open inside the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: JPow came and went and we continued the "explore" the ranges as we pull near-term value lower.  With…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Opening inside of Friday's range meant that the auctions stayed range bound to help pull near term value…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: A record number of puts were traded on Friday (bought and sold) and we closed the week right…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Lower prices in the direction of Wednesday’s trend as expected.  Responsive rallies early in Euro session were sold…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Neutral activity again on FOMC and Powell's comments. We explored both sides of the equity balance ranges and…
>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY REVIEW &…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Neutral activity as the auction is uncertain heading into Wednesday's FOMC.  The auction was successful at migrating value…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Equities gapped lower into the end of the week and OPEX, though we did have neutral behavior.  Sellers…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: As mentioned on the Q&A yesterday...we were more primed for another directional move today from the key inventory…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Rotation south of 50% of the prior RTH range as expected with neutral activity as the auction digested…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: As noted in my comments I posted in Slack on Monday evening...we were underhedged heading into CPI and…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: A rotational day as expected, but on the heels of another gap that held...not expected.  This is a…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Gap and stick led to the inevitable drift higher into the close of the week.  Note we closed…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Last day of the first week of fall trading....let thy roll commence.  We are into contract roll from…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Wednesday was one of those sessions where the auction just needed to have a chance to go higher... …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Auctions got new RTH lows as expected...though it remained a rare stat day with no Initial Balance extension. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Friday ended "Summer Trading" in markets with an unexpected NFP later session reversal that reverted equities back to…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Thursday was a new month and we started with gaps lower.  We mentioned that we were on the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Monthly lows printed on the last day of the month.  The creates considerable monthly selling excess and now…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: We were looking for the "inside/out" day to help migrate 5D value lower.  We did migrate 5D lower,…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Gaps lower to start the week.  Early selling allowed us to be short in NQ and ES for…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Big wash out after Powell's Jackson Hole comments.  Note how the auction swiftly returned to the 5D and…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Low RVOL on Thursday led to wide swings and "impulsive" trade.  The equities honored their pre-market postures and…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Lots of fight and lots of big references around to aid the confusion.  Particularly....ES is right at the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Balancing day as expected in the ES, Russell, and NASDAQ. NASDAQ did offer the third-period reversal that extended…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Gaps to start on Monday and equities held the gaps, they made beelines for weekly expected lows and…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Friday's OPEX did not disappoint.  The massive expiration of gamma opened the auction to move and we moved…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Thursday we were looking for “inside/out” moves in the equities away from the balanced and neutral references of…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: FOMC minutes on Wednesday and the auction played as expected.  Early session volatility and movement, followed by balance…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Tuesday was a follow on from Monday with a liquidation break (we expected) that offered chances to be…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Monday gave us the expected new RTH highs, but it failed to give us much rotation as the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Low volume and impulsive drift higher to end the week.  There were early chances to clean up structure,…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Thursday the equities held the CPI ranges (NQ tested from above).  The SPY achieved the YTD VWAP, and…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Big move as expected in equities off the CPI print.  CPI is the new FOMC.  Aug CPI ranges…
>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY REVIEW…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Early weakness in the Equities while traders started to hedge up for CPI, but not enough to do…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Correction to my previous post....CPI is on Wednesdsay, not Tuesday.  So, this leaves time on Tuesday for traders…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Good volatility as expected on Friday following the nonfarm payrolls report before the open. The ES and the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Tech heavy Nasdaq is leading the pack as we made the expected new RTH highs in NQ, but…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: A "move" from multi-day balance in the equities.  Further widening of the VIX curve says there are many…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: A solid balancing day in our developing multi-day ranges in the equities.  We made a new high in…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: New weekly highs as expected to start the week and month following the strong showing of last week. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Binary week and end of month is behind us.  You have to wonder what fuel is left for…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Binary week coming to a close.  We knew this one would be tough!  Carry that forward if you've…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Binary week continues.  FOMC came and the $VIX curve reverted, leading to higher prices and new weekly ranges.…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Moves from balance lower in ES and NQ...and a very tight balance day in RTY.  Big moves after…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Very tepid balancing trade to begin the week. Divergences throughout the equities as the Russell extended initial balance…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Back from vacation and ready for a big week with Big Tech earnings, FOMC, & Month-End.  Expect big…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Unable to accept in the prior ranges, buyers came in during the Euro IB after the initial jobless…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: FOMC minutes came and the auction was unable to accept lower.  So, we come into Thursday with buyers…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: The word of caution for Tuesday was merited.  New Quarterly inflows meant we saw very impulsive trend days…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: We always stress caution on Fridays, but the Friday before the July 4th weekend was definitely one to…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: A balancing day in equities in front of the end of the month and quarter.  Only the 2nd…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Tuesday, we were looking for “inside/out” and “outside/in” trade from the 5D developing nodes.  We did not expect…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Monday was a "rest" day, accepting the ramp from Friday and building value to support higher prices.  Tuesday…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: A break from 3-day balance higher as expected with further acceptance above 3768 (for example) in the ES. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Range-bound trade around the developing 5D value.  Noting quick flushes to shake longs, but overall, still able to…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Powell didn't rattle the auction much on Wednesday.  The overnight trade tested key levels from last week and…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Gap and stick on Tuesday following the VIX reversion on Friday.  Balancing days once the gap was established.…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: OPEX is past and we ended the week with a $VIX curve in reversion.  This, combined with the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Complete reversal in the equities post FOMC and new weekly lows as expected.  We have OPEX into Powell…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: FOMC day came and went. We saw neutral activity in all of our core products, but especially in…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Pre-FOMC balancing day as expected.  Wednesday is FOMC.  Trade will likely balance into the release at 2PM EST. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Another gap and stick lower day to start the week in equities in follow-through from the Bearish CPI…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Selling into the hole on Friday puts us looking for counter activity and balancing on Monday, but new…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: NOTE: with contract roll....there will be no individual plans for today.  Back with full plans on Monday!  Have a…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Wednesday was the day after a strong trend higher in the equities, but take note of how the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: A range-bound trend in the NASDAQ and the S&P, while the Russell broke out of range and closed…
I was on vacation Friday thru Monday.  So, when coming back from an extended time away...I always treat the returning session as…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Bracket rules held well on Wednesday in the equities as the ES, RTY, and NQ traded lower to…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: As expected Tuesday after the holiday weekend was a balancing day and we saw prior value tests in…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Strong trending higher in all products on Friday as we headed into the holiday weekend. We are now…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Big move from balance higher in equities.  Solid trend days set expectations for higher prices on Friday to…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Despite the mid-session volatility from FOMC minutes....Equities accepted higher.  We changed posture and we are expecting higher prices…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Equities attempted lower on Tuesday and ultimately came back to value.  Using our review questions...what direction is the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: We saw higher prices on Monday in the equities as expected given the VIX curve reversion, composite inventory…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Sellers were active early on OPEX day pushing us into what looked like a trend day lower into…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Balancing day in Equities after making new weekly lows.  ES & NQ tested last week's lows & migrated…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Big rejection of post Powell neutral extreme days brought in significant sellers once we traded back into the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: EQUITIES:: Successful closes above last week's CPI ranges after comments from Powell.  The $VIX curve is ready to fully…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Equities continue to play in the CPI ranges from last week as we balance in front of Powell on…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Equities hit significant long-term references last week (see the weekly outlook) and bounced as expected.  We're now into "rest"…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Neutral days in equities after completing tags of key long term composite references.  Expecting rotations and "rest" on Friday…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: CPI led to a very large response as expected and the ultimate result is the equities broke from their…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> Recording to the PATHWAY planning session posted in SLACK Balancing in Equities on Wednesday as expected in front…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Big Crude sell-off.  NQ tested the 2021 lows.  ES hit 4K and RTY hit the break from balance target…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Follow through lower after the FOMC reversal gave all the equities a poor weekly low heading into the weekend. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: A least expected day....well almost.   We knew the prices that would cause a shift if reached, but they were…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: FOMC now past.  As we suspected, Powell meeting the expectations and nothing more, led to a massive "Vanna" rally…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Very whippy and nervous trade on Tuesday in front of FOMC.  ES is balanced and ready to move from…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Start of the month and we got behavior consistent with opening on the lows of the prior month.  New…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Short into the hole is the story of last week.  Equities balanced in lower weekly ranges all week before…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: > PATHWAY LIVE session recording is posted in #pdp_weeklies We finally finished with 3 days of mega-cap earnings and…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: > PATHWAY Q&A session recording is posted in #pdp_weeklies Day 2 of 3 big mega-cap earnings days.  Just AAPL…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: > PATHWAY planning session recording is posted in #pdp_weeklies The first day of mega-cap earnings brought new yearly lows…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: A "look below and fail" for Equities that all made new weekly lows and then quickly pushed back into…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Big flush lower in Equities into the weekend.  Expect lower prices on Monday and no trade above 50% retrace…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: > Recording from the PATHWAY LIVE session is posted in SLACK Textbook examples of "look above & fail" in…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: > Recording from the PATHWAY Q&A session is posted in SLACK A challenging rotational day in Equities on Wednesday…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> Recording from the PATHWAY planning session is posted in SLACK You'd be forgiven for thinking that today meant…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Lower prices in equities as expected following the weak closes on Thursday.  Neutral activity shows the fight and lack…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Long weekend and weak lows in the equities set the expectation for lower prices into the new week.  High…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: > PATHWAY Q&A session recording is published in SLACK ES, RTY, & NQ countered prior double distribution trend days…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> PATHWAY Planning session recording is published in SLACK CPI was the big catalyst on Tuesday and it didn't…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Lower prices in the equities cleaned up the weak closes last week.  ES tested and failed at YTD VWAP. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Weak close to the week in Equities.  ES & RTY put in an inside day.  NQ put in a…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> Recordings from the THURSDAY PATHWAY LIVE session will be posted in #pdp_weeklies in SLACK. If Equity buyers were…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> Recordings from the PATHWAY Q&A session will be posted in #pdp_weeklies in SLACK. A "change" day in the…
>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY or…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> Recordings from the PATHWAY sessions will be posted in #pdp_weeklies in SLACK. Tuesday, equity sellers showed their hands…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Responsive buyers on Monday driven mostly by tech took us back to help the NQ test the prior week's…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: More weakness on Friday after the nasty quarter/month end on Thursday.  The ES, RTY, & NQ are all near…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Ugly close to the month and quarter.  All things being equal, we should have seen new highs, but the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Swing and a miss for RTY.  This is "test" behavior.  When an auction breaks above a key bracket and…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: The divergence of price/value in ES and NQ on Monday was discounted by the auction on Tuesday and we…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: More neutral activity helped ES, NQ, and RTY tag all of the key references of our plans.  Neutral activity…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Lots of neutral activity on Friday shows there is a fight for control in the equity market. Ultimately the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> Thursday PATHWAY Session recording is posted in SLACK After balancing chop early, buyers came in the session to…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> Wednesday PATHWAY Session recording is posted in SLACK For the second day, it was Tesla and then it…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> Tuesday Session recording for PATHWAY members will be posted in SLACK It was all Tesla on Tuesday.  I…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Monday was a day of rest for the equities as we digested the massive moves from last week.  Rotational…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Solid strong chase higher into the weekly close on Friday in the equities while Crude balanced.  After 4 days…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Follow thru higher in Equity markets despite Crude moving significantly higher as well.  We appear to have lost the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: No outlook for Wednesday as it was FOMC day and a day we try to take away from markets. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Follow thru lower in Equities on Monday while Crude also traded lower.  This is a bit of divergence as…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Selling the rips in the equities as Crude balanced to close out the week.  We begin the most significant…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> PATHWAY recap & review video posted in SLACK for PATHWAY participants CPI number came and went.  It was…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> PATHWAY Q&A video posted in SLACK for PATHWAY participants Headline risk continues to dominate and implied extremes seen…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> Tuesday PM planning video posted in SLACK for PATHWAY participants Headline risk continues to dominate as we work…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: >> Review video covering the 4 tradeplan products is posted in #pathway_2022 in SLACK Lower prices in equities after…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: The jobs number beat on Friday, which fuels the Fed's plans to continue with the 25bps rate hike at…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Powell spoke before Congress and while he reiterated that the Fed would raise rates 25bps at the next FOMC,…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Powell spoke before Congress and while he reiterated that the Fed would raise rates 25bps at the next FOMC,…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: It may sound like a broken record, but headline risk remains a key driver.   We experienced this during the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Headline risk remains a key driver.  We saw this in the massive gap lower of equities and gap higher…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Friday was follow-on from the massive reversal on Thursday.  Equities continued higher.  Crude lower.  When there is geo-political conflict…
>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY  REVIEW…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: What a difference more market information makes.  After the massive gap lower overnight, buyers stepped in equities first to…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Invasion and fighting in Ukraine commence.   This on top of already dicey conditions with regard to 2022 monetary policy…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: The invasion has begun in Ukraine.  The VIX curve keeps flirting with inversion/reversion.  Tuesday was our Monday and volatility…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: OPEX on Friday ended in weakness for the equities and balance for Crude. Headline risk remains in play.  The…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Strong selling across our core products as Crude gapped lower and ES and NQ traded back through the FOMC…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: After an initial impulsive open in equities, the algos held us hostage until FOMC minutes, that led the auction…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: A gap higher that began in Europe led to a gap and fight day in ES and NQ.  They…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: In the weekly outlook we talked about how now that key earnings are passed, we are susceptible to "headline"…
>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY or…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: A puke into the close in equities, while Crude raced to new yearly highs.  The "Fiscal" market is alive…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: CPI & Fed's Bullard did not disappoint to bring the volatility we expected for this session.  The equity picture…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Buyers kept their hand in play on Wednesday with a gap and stick.  They took most of the range…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: We were looking for a "directional" day in the equities after the chop of Monday.  Sellers gave up their…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Big chop game in the equities.  ES & NQ put in an "inside" day.  RTY was slightly better and…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: NFP came and we are no clearer than we were when we entered.  Expecting early chop unless something happens…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: We got the lower prices in the session expected in equities after the counter activity shut off on Wednesday. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Indexes achieved key areas of resistance and we saw counter activity come in to shut off the upward auctions…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: ES and NQ closed above the YTD VWAP.  RTY made a push to the top of a multi-session bracket. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Trend days higher across the equities.  Expecting rotations in the direction of the trend for Tuesday.  ES and NQ…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Spike higher into the close was a kick save for the end of the week in the equity indexes. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: The fallow-up trade from FOMC kept us south of the FOMC release prices.  Attempts to return to the scene…
>>This is a sample of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development PATHWAY or…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Has Uncle Jerome lost his magic touch?  Or, has the market finally come to grips with the physics of…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Balancing day in front of Microsoft earnings and FOMC on Wednesday.  Good "structure" clean-up opportunities presented in the Equities…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Neutral behavior in the indexes effectively shuts off the downward move and takes us into a balancing range.  This…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Fresh weekly and monthly lows in ES, NQ, & RTY to close the week.  Value is much higher, so…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Bit of a puke fest Thursday afternoon after we put in a sharp short-covering rally early.  Afternoon programs came…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Equities pulled near-term value (5D) lower and then spiked lower into the close.  It's not the market of 2020-21…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Sellers resumed control on Tuesday after the long weekend and they brought enough concern that put buyers are finally…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Fridays before a long weekend are always a challenge.  All 3 indexes closed in the lower distribution of their…
Each weekday morning we post "mark-ups" of S&P futures on our twitter and instagram feeds.  The platform we show is called WindoTrader. …
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: It was a day that was "make or break" for both the bulls and the bears and it was…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Both bears and bulls have something to cheer about after the CPI number on Wednesday.  We are no more…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: First taste of Powell for the year goosed us up into the region we sold off of from NFP…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: New week lows to start the week brought an afternoon rally that sets up a decision post Powell on…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Lower off the NFP number as the number was consistent with pre-pandemic jobs reports.  Lots of Fed speak to…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Balancing day in the Equities after new lows as they attempt to pull near term value lower.  Crude made…
>>This is a free sample edition of the TRADEPLAN & QUICKSHEET which we prepare daily for those who are in our development…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: A large break from balance in ES, NQ, & RTY.  All products are either tagging or within short range…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: An Engulfing day in the NQ, good selling excess in the ES, and strong selling excess in the RTY…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: The first trading session of the year is over.  RVOL was bad.  Price was driven in the NQ and…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: The Holiday week was completed with light volume and lower prices across the ES, NQ, & RTY.  Crude also…
Some time ago, I had the opportunity to catch up with Dave Toth, Market Insights Senior Analyst with RJO'Brien (Dave has served as a…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:   >> No tradeplan per product until the new year. We'll focus on the contextual structure until after January…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:   ES back to last week's VPOC at 4630 and above 4610 MVWAP. Supportive above these prices. NQ near…
File this under: "You know if you can see the opportunity, everyone else can too" Have you ever seen an auction get ahead…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:   Early lower prices were bought in the equities and should lead to higher to overlapping higher prices on…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:   OPEX left ES and NQ vulnerable for more downside in the new Holiday week. Watch 4610 in the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN:   FOMC buyers became post FOMC sellers on Thursday. ES got new ATHs overnight and found sellers on news…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: FOMC day and Powell gave a timeline for taper and rate rises. Translation, the party continues until at least…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: We got the lower prices as expected in the equities and Crude. Now, we wait for FOMC and Uncle…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: We got the lower prices as expected in the equities and Crude. Now, we wait for FOMC and Uncle…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Look above and fail in NQ and ES back through last week's VPOCs and the CPI releases.  This sets…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Friday was all about the roll from December to March.  This coming Friday is the actual expiration. RVOL should…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: After early range bound trade, equities broke the range and pushed to new ranges into the close. Friday we…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Rotational day as expected in equities to digest the big Vanna ramp on Tuesday.  Complacency is back on the…
REVIEW & TRADEPLAN: Rotational day as expected in equities to digest the big Vanna ramp on Tuesday.  Complacency is back on the…
ES: 4685 is the 5&20D VPOCs as we head into Wednesday.  We closed above the expected weekly high. A gap and stick on…
ES: Monday showed what can happen if the auction goes home bearish on a Friday and no one adds to their put…
Thursday saw lower prices in the NQ while RTY and ES put in "inside" days to backfill the inventory holes left on…
Massive liquidation in the equities to start the month.  ES and RTY made new monthly lows.  The NQ is the lone holdout. …
If you are going to be active in US equity markets (particularly with the SPX complex), knowledge of what is displayed above…
NQ, ES, and RTY all ended the month on their monthly lows and with expanding volatility.  Sellers have taken hold of the…
Month-end is upon us and only 1 more month in an incredible 2021.  The weekend news seemed to calm fears for a…