For Monday: Equities pulled back Friday thanks to Uncle Jerome and a handful of tech stocks. No real damage was done. It was a much needed rest. We could back and fill for a few more days before making another run higher. Have a great Monday!
The ES and NQ continue to press higher with the RTY while treasuries move lower. Note from the Quicksheet that equities and equity sectors are near weekly and monthly expected highs while treasuries are near their expected lows. This divergence is unlikely to last, but may not resolve on a Friday unless Powell spooks things. Catalysts: Powell speaks at 11AM EST Click the image below to view the QUICKSHEET:
For Friday: What a week. Growth stocks have been on a wild ride but got hit hard after hours. We will lighten our holdings tomorrow as we have extended this recent move. It is always good to lock in some gains. Have a great weekend.
For Thursday: Equities took a much-needed rest Wednesday. The S&P is knocking on the door of All-Time Highs and we could see the new highs with earnings. And since we are in earnings season, let us remind you to be aware when earnings are released. Getting run over because you didn't know when the earnings release was, is painful. NFLX and TSLA are now behind us...next week we have more…
For Wednesday: It's a rocketship and like all rocketships, they will run out of gas. If you picked up opportunities prior to this run be sure to lock in some gains. We anticipate equities will take a breather before taking a run higher. Have a great Wednesday.
Yet another low-volume ramp in ES and NQ. ES will come into Wednesday in extreme posture. NQ is within reach of the weekly expected high. Hard to be long when the profile says to offset longs, but the persistence of the buyers keeps us moving higher on poor structure that we carry forward. Aussie Dollar remains in extreme. Wheat is in extreme. Gold continues to be in balance.....watch for moves…
Another low volume ramp in ES and NQ. RTY got early lower prices (as expected) and then rallied a bit. Very poor structure in this post OPEX rally into earnings. Aussie Dollar is now in extreme. Crude found some sellers to potentially shut off the upside for a bit. Catalysts: We have several Fed speakers throughout the session and Netflix earnings after the close. Click the image below to view…
For Tuesday: Equities were still on the rocket ship. If you missed your entry points don't chase. Be patient for a pause. Reminder: NFLX earnings Tuesday after the bell and TSLA on Wed after the bell. Have a great Tuesday!
Low volume ramp into the weekend on the back of OPEX and into earnings for US equities. Watch for failure if we push higher early on Monday. This would produce a reversal trade if we push higher first in ES and NQ and then fail. RTY put in some decent selling excess on Friday. Watching for follow through on Monday. Crude is on the radar for a posture short....watching for…
For Monday: Equities rallied for the third day in a row and now are at a critical point. We expect some back and fill for a few days. REMINDER; We are in earnings season. We NFLX and TSLA this week. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we are watching: NVDA, SNAP, and SQ. Have a great Monday.
For Friday: Equities followed through on day two. Lots of stocks had good volume behind them. This was a good sign for swing traders. Also great for bullish credit spreads. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we are watching: AMD and NVDA. Have a great weekend.
Thursday saw low RVOL "vanna" infused rallies in the equities that gapped and stuck making for large range days and new weekly highs in ES and NQ. Expecting tighter rotational days on Friday. This will favor fading from the edges. From the quicksheet: Canadian Dollar is on the radar for shorts. Silver and Gold expect rotational days after large range days and trading near the weekly expected highs. Friday is…
ES, NQ, and RTY all closed above rebalanced 5/20D composites. So long as we open above these references, we will be favoring the buyers. Corn and Soybeans are on the radar for posture extreme longs. Canadian Dollar is in extreme for posture swing shorts. Catalysts: We have initial jobless claims before the bell and more bank earnings. Click the image below to view the QUICKSHEET:
For Thursday: Growth stocks started lifting today which is a nice change. No, the question is, can they hold the gains for a day two? Regardless, equities are still trying to prove themselves and risk management is job number #1. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we are watching: NFLX, AMD, and C. Have a great
For Wednesday: Equities continued to struggle Tuesday. We are being very picky about our new plays. We are still leaning on credit spreads while equities shake out. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we are watching: EXPE, PNS, HAL, and ZS.
ES and NQ retained the bearish tint we came into the session with. We still have 5D VPOCs above 20D VPOCs. In this scenario, we will have 1 of 2 outcomes. We will either auction back to the 20D in the subsequent session, or find a prior composite reference to turn into the 5D. ZF continues to flash that it's looking for a bounce. We actually put on some long…
Early rips were sold and now we have ES in ping pong land and NQ bearish below the key 14830-880 area. RTY once again failed to break higher and is back in a bearish posture. 2225-27 headwind for the RTY. The ZF is flashing extreme and may be primed for a bounce. 1758 the key pivot for Gold. BTC needs to hold 54900 area. Click the image below to view…
For Tuesday: Institutions have been playing whack-a-mole with equities and it looks as if they want to continue the game. IV has been increasing on some individual names so during periods of sell-offs we like to watch for names that don't participate in the sell-off and take advantage of the credit spread environment. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we are watching: HAL, LVS, GE, and VZ. …
Earnings kick off this week and the major indexes are in balance. Watching for continued pressure on the treasuries. Continue to pull stops up in BTC. Click the image below to view the QUICKSHEET:
For Monday:
NFP before the open. In general, a bad number is good for equities. A good number is bad. Figure that one out. Mark the 8:30AM EST release. That is an early session bias reference. Bullish above, bearish below. Continue to pull stops up in BTC. Click the image below to view the QUICKSHEET:
For Friday: Happy NFP day. Markets had a face-ripping rally Wed that extended into Thursday. However, gains were given back late in the session. The market is at a critical point and while some equities are holding up well, many are not doing so well. We are being patient while we seek new equity leaders. Have a great weekend.
China remains on Holiday. We have Initial Jobless Claims before the open. The short-covering early in the week has become a real rally that has changed the posture in ES and NQ. Lock in gains in Bitcoin if you are long. Take a look at the Ultra 10 year for potential posture swing longs! NFP on Friday!! Click the image below to view the QUICKSHEET:
For Thursday: Equities staged another rally after a weak open. There was more volume in this push higher. Going light into the NFP number on Friday. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols: KO, GOOGL, and UBER. Have a great Thursday.
China remains on Holiday. Ripping short covering day in ES and NQ stalled on the way back to composite HVNs. RTY remains in balance. Lean Hogs and the Nikkei are in extreme posture. Eia in Crude. Crude is above the weekly expected high. Still eyeing selling in Crude. NFP on Friday!! Click the image below to view the QUICKSHEET:
For Wednesday: Equities attempted a rally but fell a bit short into the close of the session. All eyes could be on the NFP number Friday. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we are watching. BBWI, CCL, LVS, XOM, and WMB. Have a great Wednesday.
For Tuesday: Equities took it on the chin Monday. The market is spooked and it seems like this will continue until the US government can resolve the possible shutdown and the infrastructure bill. IV is rising so that means we are back to looking at credit spreads. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we are watching: NEM, GM, AAPL (Credit Spreads), and GOOGL (Credit Spreads).
China remains on Holiday. With NQ close the weekly expected low already, we are watching for sellers to get trapped. Lean Hogs, Soybeans, and Yen remain on the radar. Facebook and Amazon are in extreme, but I believe they need to push lower, but we can keep them on the radar as well. Crude is above the weekly expected high. Still eyeing selling in Crude. Click the image below to…
China is on Holiday this week. So, expecting most of the moves to happen either during the Euro session or US session. Expecting the ES to migrate the 20D lower. Expecting balancing in wide ranges in the equities up into NFP on Friday. Watching for Crude reversals back lower on early week rallies. The Yen is on the radar for a swing long. Click the image below to view the…
For Monday: Equities found a bid on Fridays as some of the stronger names went red to green. This provided a tactical play. Equities are still on shaky ground and some are wondering if this pullback will be enough to run to new highs. Time will tell. While you begin looking for strength in individual stocks and new plays always be mindful of risk. The market will eventually find its…
Month-end and quarter-end. We could see some wide swings in the ES as JPMorgan repositions their quarterly collar. ES and NQ are trying to migrate the 5D lower. Need a bit more balance for that. Watching for more short side in Crude now that it has changed posture. AAPL is again in extreme, so be mindful. Finally, the VIX curve reverted to a negative spread (bullish equities) during Wednesday's…
Seeing some counter activity in Natty Gas taking it into the "rest" phase. Crude had an engulfing bearish day to shut off that auction as well. Bonds very close to YTD VWAP. Ultra Bonds and 10yrs in extreme posture. AAPL is in extreme posture heading into tomorrow. ES and NQ are below the monthly expected lows. NQ below weekly expected low. In other words, we're looking for longs on Wednesday…
For Wednesday: Markets fell hard on Tuesday on a wall of worry. The national debt, inflation, Government shut down...you name it, institutions are taking the opportunity to take some risk off the table. We have gone to cash on our equities and will look at selling credit spreads as IV increase. Have a great Wednesday.
Long RTY and Short NQ was the trade on Monday as the ES traded around 4450 as expected. RTY closed the week above the YTD VPOC. Lean Hogs are still in play. Gold / Platinum pair remains in play. Natty Gas continues to rip higher. Watching for counter activity. Same goes for Crude. Lean Hogs idea is complete on the limit up gap to start the week that achieved all…
For Tuesday: Markets were mixed and seemed confused most of Monday. We are seeing a shift with large inflows into small caps which has the IWM/RUT flying higher. This is good to see since the small caps have done nothing all year. From the Equities Quicksheet, here are a few symbols we like: CRWD, DIS, GM, NFLX, and V. Have a great Tuesday.
Equities ended the week back at the prior week balance in front of lots of Fed jawboning this week. Expecting lots of ES balancing around 4450. A good place to think about ES or SPY strangles or Iron Condors. RTY closed the week above the YTD VPOC. Lean Hogs are still in play. Gold / Platinum pair remains in play. Looking for a chance to put on Short NQ and…
For Monday: After a much anticipated week, stocks are doing what they should do when the FED keeps the foot on the pedal...Rally! From the rally, we expect equities to bid higher this week. The $VIX will be key, so we will keep a close eye on it. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we like: AMZN, MSFT, BAC, COST, and ORCL.
For Friday: Boom...Equities popped off the back of a FED that refuses to make adjustments. As long as the FED will keep the foot on the gas pedal, we will keep buying. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we like: AAPL and PLTR. Have a great weekend.
ES back to MVWAP and NQ is close. RTY closed above the YTD VPOC and looking to continue higher. Big surprise may be the swift sell off in treasuries after initially rallying off FOMC. Powell and 2 other Fed speakers are scheduled at 10AM EST. Still looking at December Lean Hogs. ES and NQ remain in ping pong postures and prime to keep sitting in strangles or iron condors. Click…
FOMC is over and Powell did his best to suggest the Fed will continue the program. We closed higher in all the US equities and have key pivots for tomorrow. Holding above those levels will likely lead to us moving toward longer-term value higher. The RTY is right back to the middle of the muddle and is looking for a break from the 2215-2230 area. Here are TRADEPLANS for core…
For Thursday: Two down and one more event to go. The last event is the quarter/month-end. Uncle Jerome and the gang did a lot of nothing today using creative language to talk around the interest rate and QE decisions. This weeks close will be very important for equities. We are focusing on the symbols that held up well on the move down. From the Equities Quicksheet hear are a few…
FOMC day has come and gone. ES and NQ have 4385 and 15136 respectively as the scenes of the FOMC release to monitor on Thursday. RTY closed right back to YTD VPOC and is balanced. Implied volatility was higher than Tuesday but lower than Monday. We have Jobless Claims before the open and Powell speaking again on Friday. Lean Hogs in extreme and on the radar for swing longs. Click…
It's FOMC day! May the rates be ever in your favor! We Will not initiate any new trades today, but taking note of key levels like the 5D for after FOMC on Thursday. Click the image below to view the QUICKSHEET:
For Wed: Happy FOMC day. We take this day off due to the announcement. We will be back at it on Thursday.
Massive post OPEX moves away from prior balance. The moves were so large that we will likely need to balance in front of FOMC on Wednesday. Implied volatility has expanded, so range expectations are larger, but still expecting rotations. If you can be patient for the edges, there are likely great trades available today! Here are TRADEPLANS for core daytrade products: [ES,MES,SPY] [NQ,MNQ,QQQ] [RTY,M2K,IWM] >> Watch this video for how…
Big further liquidation lower in US equities. Bearish posture around. The question now will what happens next with FOMC on Wednesday. Most likely we balance in the direction of the breakout to attempt to pull 5D value lower. Otherwise, FOMC will take us right back to composite value. ES, NQ, and RTY have all traded close to their monthly and weekly implied lows. Again, caution chasing lower, but respect the…
For Tuesday: No sugar coating todays trade...it was an old fashion beat down. Today's selling was broad-based including some of the strongest growth stocks. As we have said, there is a time to be aggressive and a time to go light. Now is the time to go light. Also, from the Equities Quick Sheet, the IV ranks are rising which means we can start to look to sell credit spreads. …
The Monday after OPEX is always dicey as market makers will re-establish ranges. ES and NQ closed with expectations for lower prices. RTY closed balanced. Waiting for the IB before taking any trades. FOMC Wednesday! Here are TRADEPLANS for core daytrade products: [ES,MES,SPY] [NQ,MNQ,QQQ] [RTY,M2K,IWM] >> Watch this video for how to read the TRADEPLAN format: VIDEO Intraday Discussion of Plans in Slack: We will discuss the plans as they evolve…
Asia on Holiday to start the week. ES in auction extreme.....caution chasing lower!! The Gold / Platinum (or Palladium) pair remains in play. Click the image below to view the QUICKSHEET:
For Monday: Now that OPEX/Quad Witching is out of the way, let the FED step to the plate. As you can see the number of consolidating equities is large. NO doubt, this will be a VERY important decision for the FED and most likely will make the market move. For this reason, we will NOT be initiating any new positions in front of the meeting. Have a great Monday!
Friday is OPEX and "Quad-Witching" in equities. It's a good day to either not trade, or focus on non-equity products. Natural Gas continues to be a focus. The Gold / Platinum (or Palladium) pair is also in play. Click the image below to view the QUICKSHEET:
For Friday: Welcome to OPEX/Quadwitching day. The markets have been making swings as institutions are jockeying for a pinning area. We have never found OPEX day to be a great day to initiate new positions. We will watch, take notes, and manage our open positions. Have a great weekend!
The auction was ripe for a reversal on Wednesday and after trading back to the 5D, ES and NQ rocketed higher. MVWAP would be an easy target higher. We have initial jobless claims and Philly Fed before the open. Mark the 8:30AM EST price for additional bias. RTY continues to bid the YTD VWAP at 2216.3 and YTD VPOC at 2230. Very key references. Here are TRADEPLANS for core daytrade…
For Thursday: Equities found a bid mid-session and didn't look back. They will need to hold the gains into Thursday and Friday to avoid more downside. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we are watching: AMZN, NVDA, UPST, and FCX. Have a great Thursday.
We got the reversals higher in ES and NQ to change posture and set us up for continuation higher into OPEX. Different postures for ES, NQ, & RTY mean the equity auction is less directional convicted. Soybeans are in extreme for Thursday. Watching for failure. Natty Gas found sellers and is seeking the 5D. Crude is not quite in auction extreme, but it is significantly above MVWAP. Watching for some…
For Wednesday: The market is slowly deteriorating while dip buyers are wondering..."where are the buyers". There is no doubt the market is nervous about next week's FOMC along with this week's expiration. With the options expiring it could bring on a wave of increased volatility which could be fueled by the FOMC's decision. We are starting to raise the caution flag until we get past the FOMC meeting and Uncle…
ES met the target prior composite level at 4428 and has migrated 5D value lower. NQ has migrated value as well. Looking for potential reversals higher in ES and NQ on Wednesday on early failure lower. Hogs are still on the radar. Palladium new on the radar for longs. May look to enter this one in a spread (short Gold / Long Palladium). Wheat began moving higher Natty Gas remains…
Good follow-through lower to start the week. Watch for 3rd session down reversal on Tuesday. We have CPI before the open, so mark the 8:30AM EST print in ES, NQ, & RTY Here are TRADEPLANS for core daytrade products: [ES,MES,SPY] [NQ,MNQ,QQQ] [RTY,M2K,IWM] >> Watch this video for how to read the TRADEPLAN format: VIDEO Intraday Discussion of Plans in Slack: We will discuss the plans as they evolve in the #tradeplan…
US equities continued where they left off on Friday with NQ achieving the key downside objective for the week. For Tuesday, we'll be looking for potential bounces in Wheat, Lean Hogs and Bitcoin. Natty Gas is worth keeping eyes on for exhaustion to the upside.
For Tuesday: The market held up better than most expected today. The S&P rallied late in the session as bulls stood their ground. Bulls could place a headlock on the bears by taking out Monday's highs ad holding it. As always, be diligent with your risk. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we are watching: PLTR, TSLA, BIDU, ORCL, and GM. Have a great Tuesday.
For Monday: Friday's close was ugly and could continue into the Monday session. We OPEX/Quad Witching this week so make sure you have set your risk on open positions. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we like: CLF, TSM, GSK, and FUBO. Have a great Monday.
For Friday: Equities struggled today as the market ripped higher off the open but lost the gains midway through the morning session. We've been seeing a lot of this and with OPEX and the FOMC meeting over the next couple of weeks, we are confident we'll see more of a directional move up or down. From the Equities Quicksheet here are a few symbols we like: FUBO, NVAX, PLTR, MARA. …
For Thursday: Sellers gave it the old college try, but...buyers saved the day again! With OPEX next week and the FOMC the week aftermarkets are getting nervous. From the Quick Sheet, you can see the Early Seller list is larger. It's a reminder to manage your risk. From the Quick Sheet here are a few symbols we are watching: CZR and DOG. Have a great day!
For Wednesday: Growth stocks were rocking on Tuesday. Of course, this is not a new story. As we mentioned yesterday, we continue to watch prices and manage our risk as equity prices are getting into frothy territory. From the Equities Quick Sheet here are a few symbols we are watching: AMD, MTCH, and DIS. have a great Wednesday.
For Tuesday: I hope you enjoyed the extra time from the markets. The NFP number on Friday was a big miss and may place more pressure on the FED to keep the gas on the QE pedal. Regardless, we will continue to focus on high probability opportunities and managing our risk. From the Equities Quick Sheet here are a few symbols we like: CRM, DOCU, ENPH, MGM, and DKNG. Have…
Fro Friday: On Thursday equities gave back a little. This could be due to the NFP number on Friday. Regardless, we are up against a long holiday weekend in the USA. No trade on Monday. It's wise to adjust stops and take some profits into strength. From the quick sheet here are a few symbols we are watching: AMD, CAT, DOW, PEP, COIN, and FSLY. Have a great weekend!
For Wednesday: Equities took a break on Tuesday. With a new month upon us, we expect inflows to hit Wednesday and Thursday. From the Quick Sheet here are a few symbols we like: BAC, AMZN, CLF, and HD. As a bonus here are a few that look primed for a monthly move: GLD, FSLY, XOP, PDD, XEC, OXY, EXAS, and IWM.
For Tuesday: It was a rocket ship Monday as the ES and NQ taking off. With Uncle Jerome's foot on the gas pedal equities can go much higher. A couple we are watching: SNAP, PEP, and DIS.
Lots of people in the industry want to tell you to keep trying to figure out how to trade. This is a story about knowing when to give up the dream..... Several years ago I was on the board of a non-profit discussing new ideas for the organization. Many of them sounded promising and exciting, but as with any new idea, there was risk with all of them. In one…
One of our Skill Enhancement Sessions. Traders often say we could help them by giving insight into entry and stop management. It's a common challenge. There are many approaches that are effective in improving this skill and most of them require first defining the opportunity. Once that's accomplished, then trigger and stop placement become a key component of the fight for good price. In this session, we discuss a number…
One of our Skill Enhancement Sessions. To gain consistency in your trading, one of the most useful tools any developing trader can employ is to perform debriefs of trades. This is effective whether the trade is a winner or a loser. This will help you isolate performance issues and avoid poor trade definition in the future. In this session, we debrief some trades using a simple matrix of questions any…
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we took a look at a number of products from stocks, futures, and forex. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we took a look at a number of products from stocks, futures, and forex. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we took a look at a number of products from stocks, futures, and forex. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we took a look at a number of products from stocks, futures, and forex. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Whether you trade intraday or look for multi-session opportunities, looking at the much wider timeframe is a good start for any approach to markets. As the rule states, "always default to the higher timeframe." This can mean you may take a long position, but if the larger timeframe is bearish, take your profits and don't overstay your welcome. Each year we produce an annual outlook. This is your chance to…
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a look at the impact of tariffs. We reviewed some early action in the NQ and we discussed expectations for the end of the year and anticipation for 2020. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a look at the impact of news releases like NFP or FOMC. Then we took a short "structure clean-up trade." We continued discussion about deliberate practice with the profile. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a look at how we incorporate news events into our view of the auction. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a look at 4 questions to ask and answer before you ever put on a trade. These questions are crucial for traders looking to build consistency. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a look at some opportunities after Non-farm payrolls. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a look at some opportunities in NQ, ES and CL. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a look at some opportunities in NQ, ZS and CL. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a look at some opportunities in NQ, ES and CL post NFP. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a discussion on our plan for the session and then we took a 50pt intraday swing short in NQ. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a discussion on a “fade” trade we took in Nasdaq futures. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
One of the anchor playbook set-ups we encourage developing traders to look for is called an IB EXT FADE (initial balance extension fade). This is means we wait for the first hour of trading to complete, see extension of range beyond that range of that first hour and then take the counter position to the extension to target a profile reference back inside the first hour's range. Below is an…
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a discussion with an important level for the day's auction, discerned from the profile. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a discussion with an important level for the day's auction, discerned from the profile. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our regular Q&A series. In this Q&A session, we began with a discussion with an overview of both Market Profile and Volume Profile. We discussed current geopolitical turmoil and its impact on our trading plans. Then we opened the floor to additional questions.
Part of our weekly Q&A series. The Federal Reserve, aka "the Fed", or the United States Central Bank is an entity whose actions traders and investors do well to be aware of. Now, as behaviorists, we do not spend much time looking at Fed actions to judge the direction in our trades. We do however mark how the auction behaves when the Fed acts and speaks and use these references…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began with a discussion about why the range of the opening range still matters, how we use this information and what we look for in the profile to help us make decisions. Then we opened the floor to questions. Then we opened the floor to additional questions. Additional questions asked and answered: How can I improve my consistency? How can I better understand…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began with a discussion reviewing trade on days like FOMC, how we use price action and what we look for in the profile to help us make decisions. Then we opened the floor to questions. Then we opened the floor to additional questions. Additional questions asked and answered: What does structure mean when we look at the profile? How can I see a…
Profiling is the core of our trading approach and analysis because it captures how all market participants (institutions, hedge funds, retails, etc) interacted with various prices. While no market cycle is the same, there are consistent behaviors in auctions that are millennia old and are not going away. This means we can see how these behaviors played out in the past to help inform our decisions in the future. At…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began with a discussion regarding the "2nd Move" trade set-up, how to discern bias and how to find larger levels in the auction. Then we opened the floor to questions. Then we opened the floor to additional questions. Additional questions asked and answered: How can I improve my skills using volume? How can I find and set…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at some opening gaps in Crude and Nasdaq futures. Then we opened the floor to additional questions. Additional questions asked and answered: When using profile, in general, does it say anything about the direction or just about levels? What are your trade management these days? how do you assess the context? How are you doing to deal…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at some opening "fade" or "responsive" trades in Crude and Nasdaq futures. We also reviewed a trade in Wheat that we took earlier in the week. Then we opened the floor to additional questions. Additional questions asked and answered: So being new to your style of trading, do you have any resource that defines the acronyms that…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at our morning routine, how to build option trades with the profile, and what the difference is between session volume and orderflow delta. Then we opened the floor to additional questions. Additional questions asked and answered: Why do you like NQ over ES? Will the market fill the gap? What's the average volume in Crude? Do you…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. Breakout trades! Breakout trades occur when we take a trade in the direction of range extension. There is a great example of this exhibited in this discussion. We began the discussion with a look at a breakout trade in Nasdaq futures. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked and answered: What are you looking for taking a trade? I mean what…
Take a look at this pre-market chart of Nasdaq futures: NQ (Nasdaq futures) are gapping (A gap is where we open completely outside the range of the prior session) into what we call an "extreme posture" in this chart. Nothing says short here yet, but this configuration does tell us it is getting late for longs in the day time frame and we should be careful about buying this gap higher.…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. Triggers. Triggers are short time frame price action arrangement patterns we use to help us minimize entry risk when we enter a trade. We began the discussion with a look at how we use triggers when we come into an area of interest based on the profile. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked and answered: Do you consider any pit…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. Patience. Patience in trading is an edge. The challenge is in knowing what you are being patient for. We began the discussion with a look at how we use the profile to help us be patient traders. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked and answered: How do you measure gaps? What is the difference between means reversal vs pull-back trades?…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to determine the context of the auction. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked and answered: What statistics does IRT provide for Profile, say for the ES? I know you have provided a 17% number for 1.5XIB for example. What timeframes context (5 days, 20 days or 6…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to set a bias for the coming session. Then we opened the floor to questions. Can you look at crude for today? Where do you start the ER? Where is the MC-VPOC in that current balance are on CL? What is the best way to trade a trend day? Can you…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the initial balance to help generate trade ideas. Then we opened the floor to questions. Can you look at crude for today? Where do you start the ER? What product do you prefer? ES, NQ? pls explain the significances of Globex and RTH? would you hold overnight trades? Will you cover the HE…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to pick better price targets. Then we opened the floor to questions.
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to confirm or negate a directional move. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered during the session: How do you keep yourself from getting chopped up in these areas of acceptance when trying to establish a position? So in that example in NQ, you would enter…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to prepare for the next move. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered during the session: Crude? Thanks for these webinars guys. Wondering how do you typically determine where to set your stops? Given a balanced volume profile, and excess levels, are there things in the profile…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to see "value" and use that value to help establish good trade location. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered during the session: Do ag products have a tendency to slow down in vol as the week goes on like indices do? Is value following price in…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to discern auction direction and quality. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered during the session: If you can can you look at SBUX on the stock side? I got short in the morning of a gap down and post open drive now looks to be one…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to find better times of the trading session to be active. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered during the session: Where did you get the stats for IB extension etc? I saw a couple of guys say "crushed the delta" what do you mean? You mentioned the best times to…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how we use "OPEN types" to determine the likelihood of "DAY types." Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered during the session: Can you take a look at ES. How today opened and what the rest of day will maybe look like? Could you explore potential position trades in ES, NQ…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile along with short term triggers to minimize risk on entry. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered during the session: Why would you love it to be to the upside? We were looking for a long entry at a key decision zone Can you look at Sugar…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to quickly identify the context of the auction. Then we opened the floor to questions.
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to determine a bias for the coming session, and more importantly, know when that bias is being challenged. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered: How long are your longer bias? You mention with your posts on twitter in the a.m. that when gapping "gap rules…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to help figure out who is in control, allowing us to position with them. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered: Do you look into inter-market relationships? Do you consider anything after the bond market closes? Do you try to concentrate your trades in the morning…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use orderflow along with the profile to gain greater confidence in directional entries. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered: Please explain order flow. TY. Hey guys, do you also analyze weekly or even monthly profiles? Are there differences compared to intraday profiles? Imho, Delta can be a two-sided sword.…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to discern unexpected market behavior (and what to do when you see this). Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered: Crude broke out of a 4-day balance on Wednesday after moving about a weekly ave move in 2 days. thursday failed to accept below Globex low…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to decide if you should go with a move or not. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered: How can I discern that the auction is "accepting" lower prices? When I go with a move, where should I place my stops? Do you consider value area high or low as…
Part of our weekly Q&A series. We began the discussion with a look at how to use the profile to anticipate a larger market move. Then we opened the floor to questions. Additional questions asked & answered: Do you look at order flow when you want to be long/short or do you use a signal for your entry? What platform do you recommend to use for charting with MP? How…
Binary events occur when a news or econ release is expected during the trading session. It creates one of 2 responses, higher or lower. In this video, we describe some ways to think about trading the day after a Binary event and what that's telling you about the forward auction.
Profilers are taught to observe certain structural reference points in the profile graphic and expected certain behaviors when the auction comes toward those reference points. So, what happens when a reference point does not behave as expected? Does this mean that profiling is invalid? May it never be. Instead, learn to interpret how this is showing you who is in control of the auction. This nuance makes the profile more…
Whether you've been away from markets for a bit and coming back, or if you want to be able to get away from screens and not feel like you've lost the plot when you return; you can use the profile to help you quickly find the plot (narrative in the market) and get reconnected to the auction.
You may have heard of traders being "squeezed" in an auction. What does it mean? How can you see it, or better yet benefit from it? In this video, we demonstrate how you can use the profile along with orderflow data to see squeezes, keep from being caught in one and benefit when they are over.
A mark of trading competence is being able to discern expected and unexpected auction behavior. For the novice, the example auction provided is seen as any other auction. For the trader who has been in markets for sometime, it means something different. The lesson here? Learn how to discern the difference. It will save you thousands.
A gap is a move measured from the RTH (real-time hours) range of one session to another. This is a mark of the presence of the OTF (other time frame trader) and should alert a trader that large ranges are possible. Gaps do not occur very often, but when they do, it's helpful to have some rules to help you navigate them as there are different types of gaps as…
An auction in "balance" is an auction at rest. The next move is preparing to come and it will initiate from this zone. First, you need to be able to identify these balanced areas and then know what to look for when they begin to break so that you can join the move.
Not all times during the session offer the same opportunity. During different periods of the trading session we look for different types of auction activity. In this example, we are looking for something called, "responsive" activity given how far we are into the session.
Not all prices or activity in the auction are the same. So, to keep from being lulled into every bit of the action, we establish zones of interest. These can serve as targets to exit or areas to look for a counter trend entry. In this video, we show how we used one of these zones to find a high probability intraday trade in Nasdaq futures.
Looking for a quick trade on the open? This is a great set-up to look for on the open in a trading product. This set-up is clearly visible through the use of the profile graphic.
Markets go through cycles of volatility which can be damaging to the account of a new trader. In this seminar, we describe how we use the profile to adapt to differing cycles of volatility.
I had the opportunity to catch up with Dave Toth, Market Insights Senior Analyst with RJO'Brien (Dave has served as a technical analyst for over 30 years) during a meeting in Denver. Dave was hosting the meeting to discuss technical analysis. By definition, technical analysis is the perspective that trading decisions are determined simply through a reading of the charts. If you use things like RSI, MACD, Stochastics, CCI, trendlines, Fibonacci,…
When making trading decisions, we remove some of the randomness of markets by identifying "open types" and "day types" to help give us an expectation of behavior.
When making trading decisions, we remove some of the randomness of markets by identifying zones that we are interested in participating. Then, if the auction comes to us, we are prepared and have a plan in place.
When making trading decisions, we always make them with respect to where we are in the "posture" of the market and that is discerned through knowing and leaning on value across multiple timeframes.
Maybe you've heard about Market Profiling before, but not sure if it's worth the hype. In this seminar, we guide you through practical examples of Market Profile in use so that you can discern whether or not Market Profile would be a value added tool to your trading methodology and approach.
You may have heard us say at some point that there is no such thing as a trading holy grail. What we mean by this is that there are no trading approaches or systems that are 100% effective, allowing you to extract money from the markets at will and without risk (btw, if they did exist, no one would let you know about it). So....if you come across someone promising a…
The short answer? yes, and no.....see below: Eventually market prices do sync with fundamental data (company finances for stocks, economic data for commodities), but the challenge is that most traders are not capitalized large enough so that they can last long enough until everything is in sync (i.e. anyone seen the Big Short?). The Crude oil futures example shown in this video shows how dangerous and poorly positioned you can…
Knowing where you are in the auction can help you stay present to potential bias shifts and opportunities to come. Don't be the trader who jumps on an exhausting trend just because it is easy to identify. Notice: derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Notice: derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
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